San Diego Union-Tribune (Sunday)
COULD CALIFORNIA LOCKDOWN RESTRICTIONS END IN JANUARY?
ECONOMISTS
YES
From an economic perspective, lockdown restriction policies enriched the wealthy while crushing middle-class small businesses. Of course, precautions should remain for those over 65 and others with chronic conditions, but massive lockdowns impose huge costs and dubious benefits. The consequences of quarantining most Americans and shutting down workplaces caused a “perfect storm” of rising unemployment, higher suicide rates, suspended other essential health care, and left no chance to build up immunities key to stopping the virus.
NO
COVID infection rates and ICU availability in California seem unlikely to quickly improve over the next few weeks. While vaccinations are under way, the percent of the population that will be inoculated by the end of January will still be relatively small. Even if the state were to switch to a model in which decisions were largely focused on the groups most at risk, ending lockdown restrictions in January seems overly optimistic.
YES
The benefits of lockdowns are hard to demonstrate in the data. But the economic costs are enormous, and there are medical costs like missed cancer screening, neglected childhood vaccinations, and serious mental health problems. I favor a more targeted approach that focuses on the most vulnerable individuals — older people and those with chronic medical conditions — and on super-spreader events. Of course, measures like face masks, social distancing, and remote meetings must be continued for everybody.
NO
It would be not be wise to terminate California’s restrictions in January. The holidays will likely keep infection rates high and hospitals overwhelmed. Even if front-line workers and the elderly are vaccinated, serious COVID-19 cases among other groups could continue to strain hospital capacity. Economic benefits could be elusive as people are reluctant to shop, dine out, or return their children to school. With a more normal life within reach, now is not the time to be brash.
EXECUTIVES
YES
But it’s highly unlikely. I am afraid Southern Californians have become so accustomed to laissez-faire, easy-going lifestyle that we are having trouble taking the quarantine seriously. We need consistent masking and 100 percent vaccine acceptance in order to fully reopen our economy.
NO
The suggestion that lockdown restrictions could end in January with a limited vaccination approach is shortsighted. Aggregate data might support this, but the devil is in the details. Coronavirus is hitting minorities at disproportionately high rates. Statewide, Latinos across all age groups make up 56 percent of COVID-19 cases — nearly three times that of White people. Among ages 0-17, Latinos account for 65.7 percent of cases. The vaccine must be widely distributed — to all vulnerable populations, before easing restrictions.
YES
And they should end. Children are not getting educated, cancer screenings are missed, mental health deteriorates and almost all people under 70 survive the infection. While hard to estimate the exact numbers yet, COVID-19 is far less dangerous than a lockdown. Lockdowns cause more NON-COVID deaths and have destroyed the economy as well as the general health of the populous. Open, use smart guidelines like masks, hand-washing, distancing and avoiding crowds.
NO
Scripps’ projections indicate a downward trajectory in January if community behavior supports the stay-at-home order as well as it did last March. That does not appear to be the case, so we project increasing hospitalizations through January because of the holidays. If behavior changed and vaccines could be made available quickly for all health care providers and those at highest risk, restrictions could lift by the end of January. But right now, that is doubtful.