ECONOMISTS

Employment: The pandemic lockdown was most devastating to small and mid-sized businesses, least capable of enduring suspended operations. San Diego’s employed labor force decreased by 230,000 in the lockdown. Nearly two-thirds (149,000) were recovered as of December 2020, but one-third of jobs will not easily return after 10 months of shutdown. With nearly 1.6 million total workers in San Diego, the glass arguably remains far more than half-full, although work hours and pay are adversely impacted.

— Kelly Cunningham

President’s economic stimulus package: In whatever form it emerges, coupled with the amount of the package, there will be both an immediate and lasting impact to the state of the economy. Over the short term, the money is intended to pay bills, stimulate spending and prop up businesses. Over the long run, the stimulus will possibly add almost $2 trillion to our national debt, which will have to be dealt with through a combination of economic growth and tax increases.

— Gary London

Vaccination rates:

Success in combating the coronavirus and the economy’s health have become tightly linked. If vaccination rates can reach 70 percent or 75 percent, we could reach herd immunity. This would allow key parts of the leisure and hospitality industry to either restart or open at greater capacity. Other businesses could raise their operating rates. Consumers’ pent-up demand could be unleashed, powering a robust economic upswing, with rising employment and falling joblessness. — Lynn

Reaser

Real GDP: This is the best indicator of the overall state of the economy. Often analysts watch the GDP growth rate. But the key question for 2021 is when the level of real GDP is going to get back to where it was at the end of 2019.

— James Hamilton

Employment: Based on the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, U.S. total nonfarm payroll employment in December was 9.8 million below its peak level in February 2020. Until employment returns to its pre-pandemic level, consumer confidence, consumer spending, and economic growth will not fully recover. Employment at the sector-level will also be important to monitor to determine whether the hardest-hit parts of the economy such as leisure and hospitality are recovering. — David Ely

Unemployment rate: The biggest impact of the pandemic economically has been on employment. Millions of people lost their jobs in the initial wave of business closings. While many of the jobs have come back, those were the lowhanging fruit. It will be more difficult to get back the remaining jobs, particularly in the hard-hit restaurant industry. Many have closed for good, and while they will eventually be replaced, it will take a while for new restaurants to come online. — Alan Gin

Employment: Throughout the pandemic, I have been most concerned with the economic impacts on our region’s hardest-hit communities and their ability to provide for their families. In anticipation of a recovery in 2021, I will continue to monitor national and local unemployment rates, which are fraught with challenges and not always reliable indicators of what is truly happening in the economy. Labor force participation and employment by industry will also be critical factors to watch in determining how different sectors of the economy are faring during the recovery. — Ray Major

Multiple indicators: Aside from monthly net employment changes and unemployment filings, I will watch residential foreclosure rates and distress sales, the inflation rate indicators like the CPI and the 10-year treasury bond rate on which mortgages are closely pegged with a spread. I will also watch to see if Biden’s stimulus is passed. Last, I will watch to see if we really accelerate vaccinations, otherwise, the unemployment rate and underemployment rate will stay high. — Norm Miller