The next big thing: Battle over bills to restrict voting

As goes California, so goes the nation.

That’s the saying, but when it comes to voting rules, it seems only part of the country is interested in expanding voting access as California has done for years. Many states appear to be going in the opposite direction.

Some of those are 2020 battleground states, and the proposals to restrict voting are coming almost exclusively from Republican legislators.

GOP lawmakers seeking to tighten voting laws continue to repeat unsubstantiated claims by former President Donald Trump that he lost the election because of widespread fraud, despite numerous court rulings, investigations and recounts that uncovered no proof such a thing happened.

Efforts to facilitate voting during the coronavirus pandemic — particularly the increased use of mail ballots — contributed to a historic turnout in the 2020 election.

Since then, there has been a flurry of legislation to overhaul voting rules from coast to coast, both to expand and restrict voting access, according to the Brennan Center for Justice, which publishes regular updates on voting laws.

In its February report, the center said 33 states are considering 165 restrictive bills this year, compared with 35 bills in 15 states on Feb. 3, 2020 (a year before the latest report was published).

On the flip side, 37 states — there is overlap — have more than 541 bills to expand voting access, compared with 188 such bills filed in 29 states at the beginning of last February.

The Brennan Center, and much of the political world, is focused on the proposed restrictions in swing states because of the notion that voting should be made easier, not harder — and the potential for those changes to affect future elections.

Depending on one’s partisan perspective, efforts to tighten voting laws are aimed at safeguarding the election process or suppressing the vote, particularly among minorities.

In the real politik view, Democrats believe they do better when more (of their) people vote, while the GOP generally sees advantages in lower turnout because their voters still show up.

That’s not an absolute. But there’s a reason why the heavily Democratic city and county of San Diego now require local elections to be determined in a fall general election, when previously a candidate could be elected by winning a majority in the lower-turnout spring primary.

Members of both parties nationwide subscribe to the dynamic behind that thinking.

“They’ve got to change the major parts of (election laws) so that we at least have

a shot of winning,” Alice O’lenick, an election official in suburban Atlanta, told the Gwinnett Daily Post.

The Brennan Center made clear what it thinks.

“In a backlash to historic voter turnout in the 2020 general election, and grounded in a rash of baseless and racist allegations of voter fraud and election irregularities, legislators have introduced well over four times the number of bills to restrict voting access as compared to roughly this time last year,” its report said.

This had been predicted by several political analysts as Trump and Republicans failed in challenging voting systems before the election, and the results afterward.

The center noted there were bills to restrict voting in the battleground states of Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia — where Trump and Republicans sought to overturn Joe Biden victories. Those states are first, second and third, respectively, in the number of bills to limit voting, according to the Brennan Center.

The legislation tends to break down into four categories: restricting mail-ballot access, tougher voter identification rules, reducing voter registration opportunities and more aggressive purges of voter rolls.

Some of the bills add requirements to obtain absentee ballots, eliminate permanent mail-ballot lists and prohibit states from automatically sending voters mail ballots. Other legislation would shrink the earlyvoting window and reject mail ballots that arrive after Election Day even if they are postmarked on that day.

One Arizona measure would raise the bar on how mail ballots can be delivered.

“A single Arizona bill would further restrict who can assist voters in collecting and delivering mail ballots (existing policy already limits such assistance to family and household members), add a voter ID requirement for turning in mail ballots in person, and require all mail ballots to be notarized,” the Brennan report said.

Another Arizona measure would allow state lawmakers to overturn presidential results in the state and declare the winner themselves, according to the Arizona Daily Star.

In Georgia, proposals include banning new residents from voting in runoff elections and ending “no excuse” absentee balloting.

Success for the bills is far from guaranteed. Georgia voters don’t want broad, new restrictions on voting, though they favor requiring a photo ID to cast an absentee ballot, according to a University of Georgia poll commissioned by the Atlanta Journal-constitution.

The poll also showed voters want stronger election security. Nearly 40 percent said they believed there was serious fraud in the presidential election, including 76 percent of Republicans.

As for the bills to improve voting access, the Brennan Center said they primarily focus on expanding mail balloting, early voting and voter registration, and restoring voting rights.

California has been in the vanguard in all those areas. Nearly 87 percent of voters cast mail ballots in November, early voting centers were set up across the state, Election Day voter registration was instituted, and voters approved a measure to allow convicted felons to vote again after they’ve completed their sentences.

Many such changes have been proposed this year in Democratic-controlled states, such as New York and New Jersey.

“But a significant number of these proposals have been introduced in states with histories of voter suppression, including Mississippi (38 bills), Missouri (26 bills), and Texas (67 bills) — suggesting that there remains concerted energy around policies that make voting easier, even if passage will be an uphill battle politically,” according to the Brennan report.

Eleven more states would permit all voters to vote by mail, including most states that adopted the policy temporarily for the 2020 election.

As last year’s election showed, how voting laws are crafted can have a significant impact on election turnout.

Changes in voting rules in key states could determine who gains control of the House and Senate next year, and the White House in 2024.

Tweet of the Week

Goes to Jack Pitney (@jpitney), political science professor at Claremont Mckenna College.

“#CPAC has all the weirdness of #Comiccon but with none of the charm and good cheer.”