No. 5 Aztecs vs. Air Force
Records: SDSU 28-1, Air Force 12-19
Series history: SDSU leads 58-24 and is 19-4 in the last 23 games (and all four losses were at Air Force). The Aztecs won the only meeting this season 89-74 on Feb. 8 at Clune Arena. Aztecs update: Their mojo back after coming from 13 down to win at Nevada last Saturday and end the Mountain West regular season at 17-1, the Aztecs now enter the conference tournament as the No. 1 seed and prohibitive favorite. The Kenpom metric gives them a 74.7 percent chance of reaching Saturday’s final and a 58.6 percent chance of winning it. Utah State is next at 19 percent. No one else is above UNLV’S 7.1 percent. SDSU reached the Mountain West final the previous four times it was the top seed but won only once, in 2006. The Aztecs have the most wins (32) and highest winning percentage (.681) of anyone in the tournament’s history. Nathan Mensah remains out, but coach Brian Dutcher reiterated his hope to have him for the NCAA Tournament in two weeks “if he can clear some medical hurdles.” KJ Feagin hasn’t participated in live drills since rolling his ankle at Nevada but had his sneakers on and shot on the side without difficulty. “If it was up to me, I’d say 100 percent,” Feagin said of his chances of playing in Las Vegas. “But being realistic, it’s up in the air. … It’ll be a collaborative decision.” SDSU is fourth in both NET and Kenpom, seventh in both the Sagarin ratings and ESPN’S BPI.
Falcons update: The ninth-seeded Falcons are the conference’s most bipolar team, ranking 73rd nationally in offensive efficiency and 319th (and last in the Mountain West) in defensive efficiency. That was on display in Wednesday’s 77-70 win against Fresno State in the play-in game, shooting 60 percent in the second half and outscoring the taller Bulldogs 30-10 in the paint and 14-2 on fast breaks. But they also struggle to stop anyone, and the Bulldogs overcame a double-digit deficit to briefly take the lead after making four 3-pointers in just over two minutes. AJ Walker had a career-high 24 points after going 5 of 7 beyond the arc. Lavelle Scottie added 21 points, most coming in the paint. The Falcons are 6-20 overall in the Mountain West Tournament, with all six wins coming in the play-in game. Here’s what coach Dave Pilipovich said when asked how he’d get his team fired up to face the Aztecs: “If that group’s not motivated and excited to play in the quarterfinal, which we’ve never advanced past, and playing a top-five team in the country, then we’ve got the wrong guys. And I know we don’t have the wrong guys because our institution doesn’t have those type of people.”
Next up: Mountain West semis against UNLV or Boise State on Friday (6 p.m., CBSSN)