CORONAVIRUS UNLIKELY TO WANE WITH WARM WEATHER
Science panel finds transmissibility studies inconclusive
A panel convened by the National Academies of Sciences reported to the White House on Tuesday that the novel coronavirus is unlikely to wane with the arrival of summer, though there are many uncertainties remaining.
These findings are in line with previous studies offering hypotheses regarding how the virus may behave in warmer and more humid conditions, and is an attempt to help distill the evidence for and against reduced virus transmissibility during warm weather.
The report, known as a “rapid expert consultation,” is addressed to Kelvin Droegemeier, the head of the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy and acting director of the National Science Foundation.
The report, published by about a dozen members of the Academies’ Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats, finds that laboratory studies of how the coronavirus varies in its transmissibility based on temperature and humidity are not yet conclusive, but that more evidence will be available in the coming weeks.
It also finds flaws in the studies published so far that trace the spread of the coronavirus and conclude that a temperature and humidity connection from the pattern of spread are also flawed. For example, one such study published in March by MIT researchers found that 90 percent of the coronavirus transmissions so far have occurred within a specific temperature (37 to 63 degrees) and absolute humidity range. For areas outside this zone, the virus is still spreading, but more slowly.
The NAS report states: “There is some evidence to suggest that SARS-COV-2 may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperature and humidity; however, given the lack of host immunity globally, this reduction in transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread” without mitigation measures, such as social distancing.
The report notes that other newly emerged coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, “have not demonstrated any evidence of seasonality following their emergence.”
In the report, scientists review the recent research on coronavirus, temperature and humidity, including those that have found that the illness transmits at slower rates in warmer areas, but warns that these results should be taken with caution.
This is because each of these studies may suffer from data quality gaps, limited time frames and the fact that the virus has mostly spread in temperate regions during the winter months, which could be a coincidence rather than an explaining factor.
The report serves as a warning to the White House not to count on a summer respite, and to brace for a second wave of the virus once the first surge in cases is over. President Donald Trump as well as the country’s top infectious diseases researcher, Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have brought up the possibility that the coronavirus pandemic would ease this summer.
Earlier, before the respiratory virus turned into a pandemic, Trump went much further, claiming without evidence that the virus would disappear in April. Speaking at the White House on Feb. 10, Trump said: “Now, the virus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April,” he said.
The NAS report goes against this line of thinking, as does reality on the ground, given that the United States now has more than 400,000 cases of COVID-19.