REPORT: AFFORDABLE UNITS’ FUTURE IN PERIL
Analysis aims to spur strategies to preserve low-income housing
SAN DIEGO
San Diego is expected to lose more than half of the 70,000 rental units that city officials classify as affordable housing during the next two decades, a first-of-itskind analysis shows.
The affordable units will be lost when rent restrictions expire on government-subsidized housing and when low-rent units that aren’t subsidized get torn down to make way for more expensive housing or other projects.
The analysis unveiled Tuesday was conducted to determine how much of the city’s affordable housing is vulnerable so that officials can devise strategies to preserve it.
While most efforts to solve San Diego’s housing crisis have focused on spurring more construction, city officials say that preserving existing affordable housing also must be a high priority.
“If we lose the low-cost housing we have already built, we are just spinning our wheels,” said Council President Georgette Gómez, who spearheaded the new effort. “This is an area that has never been truly talked about or evaluated.”
Preserving existing homes and apartment units is also much cheaper for the city than finding land for new housing and then subsidizing construction of brand-new units.
But city officials say it is crucial to contact property owners long before affordable units go away, so that new subsidies or incentives can be put in place before potential redevelopment
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plans have gained momentum.
The 94-page analysis found that San Diego has 23,000 government-subsidized units with rent restrictions and 47,000 unsubsidized units that are small enough or old enough to have rents low enough to be deemed affordable.
Of the 23,000 subsidized units, which the city calls “deed-restricted,” the analysis found that 4,200 of them will have their rent restrictions and subsidies expire by 2040.
Of the 47,000 unsubsidized units, which the city calls “naturally occurring affordable housing” or NOAH,
the analysis found that 32,000 are vulnerable to either future rent increases or destruction to make way for new projects.
Losing 36,200 of the city’s 70,000 affordable units would make solving San Diego’s housing crisis significantly harder. But Gómez said the analysis can help shape city efforts in coming years.
“This study provides us with a blueprint moving forward, enabling us to save the affordable housing we have while we create new affordable housing opportunities,” she said.
Gómez began focusing on the issue three years ago, when the 322-unit Peñasquitos Village apartment complex, where rent restrictions had expired, was demolished to make way for a 600-unit marketrate complex.
The San Diego Housing Commission, which compiled the analysis with help from an outside consultant, plans to devote $22 million of its budget for the new fiscal year to affordable housing preservation.
The commission said the city should prioritize preserving the 4,200 deedrestricted units and 9,250 of the NOAH units that would be easiest to preserve.
It would cost an estimated $86 million per year to preserve those 13,450 units, requiring additional state and federal funding, the commission said.
If the 4,200 deed-restricted units are not preserved, the city’s plan to
build 750 deed-restricted units per year between now and 2040 will yield a net gain of only 550 deed-restricted units.
That’s because losing 4,200 units is equal to losing about 200 units per year for 20 years.
The commission in 2019 hired its first housing preservation coordinator to launch the analysis that was unveiled Tuesday.
The analysis found that most of the deed-restricted housing is located downtown, near the El Cajon Boulevard corridor, near San Diego State and in San Ysidro.
Most of the NOAH units are in Pacific Beach, Ocean Beach, near the El Cajon Boulevard corridor, in San Ysidro and southeast of downtown.
For the NOAH units, the city’s criterion for affordable is whether a family earning less than 60 percent of the area’s median income can afford the unit without spending more than 30 percent of their income on rent.
San Diego’s area median income is about $69,300 a year for a family of four.
The analysis also includes several policy recommendations and preservation strategies from the Housing Commission.
They include the city providing seed money for a public-private affordable housing preservation fund. Money could come from former redevelopment agency funds or a fee charged to developers who demolish single-room occupancy hotels, the commission said.
Other recommendations include new laws to boost tenant rights under the State Preservation Notice Law and providing incentives to owners of unrestricted properties in exchange for affordability restrictions.
Councilwoman Monica Montgomery said the new analysis should spur city action.
“We must do everything within our power to ensure that we are preserving affordable housing opportunities and investing in working families, both of which will help to strengthen our local economy,” she said.