POLL: JACOBS LEADS GÓMEZ IN 53RD DISTRICT

But 38 percent remain undecided on who should replace Davis

SAN DIEGO

If “undecided” were a candidate, it would be tied for first place with Sara Jacobs, who holds a double-digit lead over opponent and City Council President Georgette

Gómez, a new poll of the 53rd Congressional District shows.

Jacobs, the granddaughter of Qualcomm co-founder Irwin Jacobs, and Gómez are both Democrats and were the top votegetters in the primary to replace the retiring Susan Davis in the House of Representatives.

The Surveyusa poll shows Jacobs leading with 38 percent support. Gómez, who is leaving her seat on the San Diego City Council, trails with 24 percent support.

There are as many undecided voters in the district as there are Jacobs supporters, Surveyusa found.

The poll, commissioned by 10News and The San Diego Uniontribune, surveyed 534 likely voters in the district, which straddles Interstate 8 from Linda Vista and Mission Hills to El Cajon before turning south to include Spring Valley, Lemon Grove, Paradise Hills, Bonita and all of Chula Vista east of Interstate 805. It also includes San Diego’s urban neighborhoods surrounding Balboa Park north of state Route 94, west of Interstate 805 and east of Interstate 5.

Much of Gómez’s support comes from young, urban voters, the poll shows, while Jacobs is strongest among older voters and White suburban women. Gómez has the support 31 percent of Hispanic voters, compared to Jacobs’ 29 percent, but that falls within the poll’s margin of error of 5.8 percentage points.

Outside factors such as the pandemic, the presidential election and voters’ unfamiliarity with the candidates all raise questions about whether Jacobs’ lead will result in a November win, said Jack Pitney, a Claremont Mckenna College professor of political science.

“In 2020, a Democrat-ondemocrat race is hard to call,” Pitney said. “Sometimes single-party races take weird bounces.”

Pitney referred to the 2018 race between Kevin Deleon and longtime Sen. Dianne Feinstein. Republicans supported Deleon in his Senate race even though he was the more liberal candidate. Republicans “really didn’t like Feinstein,” Pitney said.

Jacobs leads among selfdescribed moderates and liberals, although her lead among liberals is lower, the poll found.

More than 60 percent of those surveyed in the district intend to vote for Democrat Joe Biden for president, while 30 percent plan to vote for Republican President Donald Trump. Trump voters said they are mostly undecided about the congressional race but, among those who’ve made up their minds, Jacobs leads Gómez 26 percent to 12 percent.

To Pitney, the race could be won by the candidate who can more effectively reach and mobilize voters who are most likely consumed by the presidential race.

“Reaching people is difficult; this in turn may lead to all kinds of problems with polling,” Pitney said. “This is one of those cases where a campaign could make a big difference — the candidate who identifies the voters most likely to go their way will have a big leg up.”