CALIFORNIA VOTERS HAVE ALREADY CAST MORE THAN 1 MILLION BALLOTS
Flood of response shatters record for this point in election
Election Day is more than two weeks away, but more than 1 million Californians have already returned their mail-in ballots, according to the state, an amount that marks the most ballots collected by mail at this point in any state election.
In San Diego County, 257,510 ballots had been returned as of noon Wednesday, according to a spokesperson at the county Registrar of Voters.
The f lood of ballots announced by Secretary of State Alex Padilla still represents only a fraction of the 21 million sent to California voters under a new state mandate prompted by pandemic safety efforts, and it’s unclear whether the state’s turnout will ultimately eclipse past elections.
The huge numbers of mail-in ballots could make counting the votes more complicated and mean longer waits to determine the outcome of close races.
This was the case in 2018, when it took weeks to call some key congressional races.
But the immediate response suggests voters are especially engaged amid a contentious presidential election and the disruption to work and education caused by the pandemic, experts say.
“Many families are at a breaking point and are likely taking their frustrations out at the ballot box,” said Shannon Murphy Castellani, principal at M Strategic Communications, a Los Angeles-based public affairs firm. “It’s clear voters are paying attention this election cycle.”
The surging mail ballot response in California ref lects the nationwide trend, as voters have cast roughly 15 million mail ballots so far, according to the nonpartisan U.S. Elections Project. The increase also comes despite President Trump’s baseless claims that the process is vulnerable to fraud.
Some smaller states have even larger mail ballot return totals. The swing state of Florida has doubled
California’s total, with nearly 2 million voters already casting their mail ballots, according to the project, which is managed by Michael P. McDonald, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida. Michigan voters have already cast 1.2 million ballots, and Texas is closing in on 1 million. Those states are also already offering some in-person voting.
In California, this year ’s focus on voting by mail came in May when Gov. Gavin Newsom ordered that ballots be sent to all of the state’s registered voters. The state had been moving in the direction in recent years following passage of the Voter’s Choice Act, which created a new model similar to other Western states that have tried to make casting ballots more convenient for voters.
Orange County has also seen a f lood of early mail-in returns, with more than 100,000 ballots received so far, according to Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., a f irm that tracks voter information in detail.
The information collected by Mitchell’s f irm, which is known in the industry as a trusted data source, is sliced by demographics, geography, political party and age.
It appears that roughly 10 percent of voters who are 65 or older, for example, have already returned their mail-in ballots. Democrats have returned them at a slightly higher rate than Republicans, according to the data.
Political consultants say their internal survey data show a high degree of intent and motivation to vote early. But whether all voters will follow through by completing and ultimately submitting their mail-in ballots is unclear.
“It’s going to be signif icantly more than we’ve seen before,” said Fiona Hutton, a political consultant in Los Angeles. “Will it be historic? ... I’m not sure.”
That high level of engagement is represented by voters such as Rosie Manina, a Bay Area financial analyst who cast her mail-in ballot at a drop box.
She received her ballot a week ago and turned it in by Saturday, in what she said was the “fastest turnaround ever” for one of her mail-in ballots.
“I’ve never been so excited to vote in my entire life,” she said. “I wanted to make sure that my vote was in early, in par t to relieve pressure on my registrar.”
While many California voters are voting early, others are still waiting.
William Bird, a Marina del Rey resident, said he received notice that his ballot had been sent on Oct. 4. Yet it still hadn’t arrived as of Tuesday, more than a week later, causing him to worry about whether postal officials were properly handling the mail.
“I’m worried about where the ballot is,” said Bird, who works in real estate. “Having a drop box doesn’t do me any good if you don’t have your ballot.”