9 PERCENT JOBLESS RATE A LOW FOR PANDEMIC
County’s unemployment numbers still higher than U.S. national average
San Diego County’s unemployment rate in September dropped to its lowest level — 9 percent — since the start of the pandemic.
While the jobless rate is still high by historic standards, it is an improvement from May when unemployment reached 15.2 percent, its highest ever since record-keeping for the county began in 1990. September marks four consecutive months of reduced jobless claims.
The latest San Diego County numbers, provided by the state Employment Development Department, still depict a region drastically different from a year ago when the unemployment rate was just 2.9 percent. While the latest data show San Diego’s jobless rate falling below the California average of 10.8 percent, it is still higher than wide. the 7 percent average nation
Economist Chris Thornberg, who is founding partner of Beacon Economics, said California’s higher jobless numbers are a ref lection of stricter business closure laws than elsewhere in much of the nation, as well as a decimated tourism economy.
“It’s a tourism-heavy place,” he said. “Think of the parks, think of the zoos, think of the people that are supposed to be f lying and driving in to enjoy San Diego’s wonderful sights.”
No job category in San Diego
County has been hit as hard as leisure and hospitality. As of September, it had lost 52,400 positions over the last year, the state reported. Other hardhit sectors do not come close to approaching the number of job losses in the tourism industry.
Government, which primarily includes teaching jobs, has lost 14,200 positions. Trade, transportation and utilities, made up of retail positions, lost 13,900 jobs.
Several economists point out that
California’s tiered system for reopening the economy, which is based on
COVID-19 case rates, may mean a slower economic recovery for the
Golden State. Despite its goal of slowing the spread of the virus, the tiered framework is seen as stricter than the guidelines in place in neighboring states. A report released this week by
the San Diego Association of Governments predicted $12.4 billion in losses for the county by the end of the year.
The forecast was inf luenced by the expectation that losses in retail and tourism will continue for some time. It predicted an accelerated use of online shopping during the pandemic, which it said would continue to wreak havoc on brickand-mortar retailers even if a vaccine is approved.
The association also said many annual conferences that have typically come to San Diego for in-person meetings have now figured out how to go online with little overhead cost. SANDAG’s theory was that conference organizers may not be as eager to pay for convention space now that they know much of it can be done virtually.
One San Diego County job sector that saw an annual increase in employment was professional and business services. The category added 1,500 jobs, mainly in biotech and legal services.
Lynn Reaser, chief economist for the Fermanian Business & Economic Institute at Point Loma Nazarene University, said the unemployment rate for September in San Diego was closer to 9.1 percent when adjusted for seasonal swings. That compares to an 11 percent California average and 7.9 percent nationwide.
She said concern over San Diego County being moved into more restrictive tiers will hurt recovery efforts. San Diego is now in the red tier, avoiding the more restrictive purple tier that is in effect in Los Angeles County. County off icials, however, warned on Friday that recently increasing positivity rates threaten to push San Diego into the most restrictive tier.
“Uncertainty and fear are the economy’s nemesis,” Reaser said.
Thornberg said a positive way to look at the economy is that it seems to be recovering rather quickly.
“If you look at the history, you will never see an unemployment rate falling as fast as it is right now,” he said.
The jobless rate in San
Diego County reached 11.1 percent in 2010 but the recovery took years. It wasn’t until 2015 that rates began dropping below 5 percent.
An analysis of September’s jobless claims by Beacon Economics and UC Riverside’s business school found Orange County had the worst job losses over the past year, with payrolls down by 9.8 percent. It was followed by Los Angeles, down by 9.6 percent; Inland Empire, down by 8.2 percent; San Diego, down by 8 percent and Ventura, down by 7.4 percent.
State labor officials do not seasonally adjust jobless rates for individual counties, but the unadjusted numbers show San Diego County had one of the lowest unemployment rates in the region in September at 9 percent.
The rate was 15.1 percent in Los Angeles County, 9 percent in Orange County, 10.3 percent in San Bernardino County and 10.5 percent in Riverside County.