Will Padres still try to trade Myers? A popular question
Baseball’s offseason has begun for all but two teams, and fans have questions. Lots of questions. So many questions that we had to split the mailbag in two for print readers; part 2 will appear in Saturday’s paper. The entire mailbag is available at sandiegouniontribune.com/sports
I certainly think the Padres won the trade with the Brewers. Zach Davies and Trent Grisham were both excellent additions. My question is about Trent Grisham. I like him, but I am just not sold on him as a leadoff man or a center fielder. I think his strengths might be batting lower in the order and playing a corner spot? What are your thoughts on that? — Jason Azevedo
So you’re like the Brewers, who also didn’t see Grisham as a center fielder. However, the Padres sure seem to like him there, and the number of balls he chased down suggests they are justified to believe that’s his position. His seven defensive runs saved led National League center fielders. (Now, he must get better at holding onto some of those balls he tracks down.)
I tend to agree with you regarding the leadoff spot, mostly for the fact I love Fernando Tatis Jr. atop the order and appreciate what Grisham brings as a sort of second leadoff hitter in the No. 9 spot. However, the Grisham who chased just 20 percent of pitches outside the strike zone seems fit for the leadoff job. The Gr
isham who had a .306 onbase percentage when batting first does not. There
was a stretch of the season where the suspicion was he was being too selective and not aggressive enough. Let’s remember he turns 24 on Nov. 1 and has played in 110 major league games. I know you didn’t suggest he’s not good, but some other questioners did. To that, I point them to his .352 on-base percentage and .808 OPS.
How likely are the Padres to trade Wil Myers now that he’s had a great season under his belt? And what piece do you see them trading him for? Also for a team who has been touted as having a top 3 farm system with a bunch of pitchers who are in the top 100, why were we so reluctant to bring them up and allow them to pitch in the playoffs? Especially considering the injury situation. … Do we have a top farm system or not? — Malek
Bishawi
I regret to say I believe it is somewhat likely. As in, they are open to it. If they are going to do it, now might be the time. The belief is he did show he has figured out how to avoid the monthslong slumps, and they would love to keep him. But he is expensive (at least $41 million owed over the next two years, including the $1 million buyout on a $20 million team option for 2023). And he is more tradable than first baseman Eric Hosmer, who is a year older and is owed $40 million over the next two years and $13 million a year from 2023-25. Potential trade partners could be more inclined to take on a good portion of Myers’ salary with two or
three years remaining. That will be the key part of the deal — the money exchanged.
As for the pitchers, a highly rated farm system does not necessarily mean it is full of players who are major league ready. The Padres’ best pitching prospects are young. Gore is 21. Luis Patiño and Ryan Weathers are 20. The Rays called up Shane McClanahan to make his debut in the AL Division Series. McClanahan is 23 and pitched two years in college. I hear Gore was close. He evidently picked up some bad habits he couldn’t shake for a while this season but had mostly been able to avoid by October. We’ll see how good those three pitchers end up being, which really is all anyone can accurately say about most prospects.
Can the Padres afford to sign Fernando Tatis Jr. to an extension he and his agent will accept and keep Wil Myers? — Jim Sandler
Maybe. Tatis’ deal will likely be back-loaded. Teams took a big financial hit in 2020 and project another one in ’21, so it makes sense they would look to structure deals so the big payouts come when revenue streams have normalized. The increase also would coincide with what would have been Tatis’ arbitration and free agency years.
Do you truly believe Tatis gets a contract extension to keep him in SD forever; kind of like Mookie Betts’ contract? — Marco Antonio Gutierrez Arce
Not this time. That’s not a contract the Padres can afford right now, nor would it be a smart contract for Tatis to take at 21 years old. He can sign a six- or seven-year deal at $120150 million this winter and be in line for a massive contract when he is 27 or 28.
Any realistic chance of signing Trevor Bauer, or with all the expensive contracts on the books and hopefully one pending (i.e. Tatis long term) is it comparable to pigs with wings? — Chris
Not quite that remote. But for multiple reasons, San Diego doesn’t seem to be a fit for the premiere arm on the market. (The usual caveat when talking about an A.J. Preller team: I don’t rule out anything.)
While the free agent market will be depressed in general, a pitcher like Bauer will get top dollar. Depending on the length of the contract, he could set a record for annual value, and there are big spenders (Angels, Red Sox, Mets and Cubs among them) in more dire need of a top starting pitcher. Remember, the Padres parted with a lot to get Mike Clevinger in August and also have Dinelson Lamet at the top of their rotation.
Further, I don’t believe the plan is for the Padres to have a payroll as high as $150 million, which is about what last year’s opening-day number would have been if not for COVID-19. The Padres have current obligations of around $120 million, give or take a few million depending on who receives contract tenders by Dec. 2. If they are going to come in under $150 million without unloading at least part of Myers’ contract, signing Bauer would leave virtually no room for making any other improvements (bullpen, fourth outfielder). Even if they unload part (or all) of Myers’ contract, I think it’s unlikely they get Bauer.
By the way, the Padres’ finishing payroll for the abbreviated 2020 season was $72.6 million, ninth highest in the majors. Those who make and execute the Padres’ budget have repeatedly said over the years they have no intention of perennially having a top-10 payroll. The purpose of building from within is to be able to field a contender while having a payroll somewhere in the middle of the 30 teams. I think it is a safe bet they come in somewhere between $130-140 million on opening day. (That is, if there is a 162-game season in 2021. We could be in for a long, cold winter of negotiations regarding a ’21 season likely to be staged with limits on attendance and, thus, revenue.)
My first question is about the universal DH. Do we know when MLB & MLBPA will decide on this? It seems like they need to decide quickly so NL teams can properly construct their rosters. Also, I realize there are many market unknowns but if the Padres can’t resign Jurickson Profar to be the super utility piece, who are other potential additions to fill that role? — Jeff McDade
There seem to be an expectancy the DH continues — that asking pitchers to go back to hitting now would be silly and potentially dangerous. However, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred indicated last month he wasn’t sold on doing away with the DH. More than any other offseason, it is too early to speculate who the Padres could bring in because this free agent market is likely going to be f looded with veteran players. Plus, I am now hearing they expect to make a competitive play for Profar.
What plans are the Padres making regarding ability to have fans in Petco next season? Are they working with the governor regarding ways to safely have some level of fan attendance, such as limited capacity, strict guidelines? Are they working on any plans regarding how they would implement such restrictions with their season ticket holders? — Karl Sorenson
They had a lot of scenarios worked out internally even before the 2020 season began. Teams desperately want fans in ballparks. This is a state and county government issue. The best guess seems to be somewhere between 20 and 40 percent capacity allowed in California ballparks at the start of the season, depending on infection rates and the readiness/availability of a vaccine. What is certain is that season ticket members will have priority if attendance is limited.