An election of changes — and more may be coming

This election has been one of changes. Some are part of ongoing long-term political trends and others generated by a deadly pandemic that has upended so many aspects of life — campaigns and voting included.

Locally, the results will usher in wholesale changes in who runs the city and county of San Diego, while the region’s Democratic footprint continues to expand.

As of late last night, there was still some sorting out to be done on the national level, but nothing will change the fact that once reliably red states like Texas, North Carolina and Georgia are no longer guaranteed Republican bulwarks, even if President Donald Trump prevails.

Some of those changes transcend this particular election as demographics shifting the political landscape have been in motion for a while, particularly in suburban areas. But there’s little doubt that they have been accelerated by Trump.

Trump and the coronavirus pandemic were the two key drivers of this election.

For sure, the president was the focus of the national election. But his presence permeated even local campaigns where some San Diego Democrats sought not only to tie their Republican opponents to the commander in chief, but even Democratic opponents.

San Diego is not Trump territory. He lost the county to Hillary Clinton by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016, and early returns suggest former Vice President Joe Biden is on track to surpass that.

The pandemic forced changes on campaigns at all levels. The national political conventions, which already were becoming a relic of bygone eras, were truncated. Partisan enthusiasm on both sides in this campaign went through the roof anyway, and that may well lead to a reassessment of such gatherings next time around.

Political parties will still need some kind of post-primary organizing mechanism and a vehicle through which to crystalize the message heading into the general election. But 2020 made it clear they don’t need four days of 20,000 people squeezed into a sports arena to do that.

How candidates contacted supporters, raised money and got out the vote was far different than ever before. Many of those changes are likely to carry over into future campaigns, even when the country is eventually safe from COVID-19.

More frequent direct connections with voters may return, but handshakes, hugs and kissing babies aren’t likely to return any time soon, if ever. Political professionals initially feared the loss of rallies, dinners and coffee klatches would hurt fundraising and lower voter engagement. Both seemed to do fine through creative online efforts.

Some organizers and participants found the virtual sessions easier and more convenient than putting on live events. Tradition wasn’t completely thrown out the window. Precinct walking to build support and then get out the vote still happened, though in a modified, social-distancing fashion.

Trump, a COVID-19 survivor, continued with jammed rallies that seemed plucked out of a different time and plopped down in the pandemic era. Campaign car caravans and boat rallies became a thing.

The threat of political violence combined with the pandemic had the potential to keep voters away from the polls. But states adapted, offering more and earlier voting options — primarily with mail ballots — and turnout appeared headed toward breaking records.

Despite the effort by the president and Republican Party to limit these expansive efforts to make voting easier, it seems hard to imagine some states won’t continue them in the future. Having had this experience, voters may demand it.

Returns were viewed cautiously throughout Tuesday night. The changed manner of voting and uncertainty over when ballots would be tallied discouraged jumping to conclusions. Besides, early tea-leaf reading in past elections didn’t always work so well.

But some things were preordained before a vote was cast. San Diego will have an elected Democratic mayor for the first time in nearly three decades, a drought that was only brief ly broken by the short, scandalplagued tenure of Bob Filner.

Assemblyman Todd Gloria took the lead in early returns against City Council member and fellow Democrat Barbara Bry. Meanwhile, the council’s Democratic majority appeared headed toward expanding its majority by at least one seat, to 7-2, and possibly to 8-1.

While the Democrats no doubt share some core political philosophy, they can differ sharply when it comes to municipal issues, as underscored by this year’s campaigns.

In any case, the council will have five new members.

The county Board of Supervisors, a Republican bastion for decades, will also be more Democratic. Whether Democrats gain a majority on the five-member board depends on whether Terra Lawson-Remer can hold on to her strong early lead over Republican incumbent Kristin Gaspar.

Not only would a LawsonRemer victory give Democrats a majority, it would also mean the board will have three new members.

The big infusion of new blood among decision-makers at the region’s biggest governments is due to term limits and some council members running for higher office.

The turnover comes at a precarious time. COVID-19 will continue to threaten public health and the San Diego economy for some time to come.

At the same time, some experienced administrators are leaving both the city and county.

Part of the change is also due to long-term realignment of the county’s politics, from control by Republican and business forces to dominance by Democrats and organized labor.

The nation appears to be going through something of a similar trend, though maybe not as strong as Democrats would have liked. Democrats will keep their majority in the House, but they may not expand that as they had hoped. Democrats likely will pick up Senate seats, but gaining control of the upper chamber — and the White House — was in doubt.

Elections can change what appear to be trends and realignments overnight.