Padres eye deal with Tatis as unique money factors swirl
As financial factors collide like bumper cars at Coney Island and the Padres creep ever closer to the unrelenting Dodgers, they are experiencing a unique type of whiplash.
The pandemic bruised the books. The contracts of Manny Machado, Erik Hosmer and Wil Myers will chew up $70 million if they play 162 games in 2021. Stakes soared with a historic tradedeadline push. Injuries to Mike Clevinger and Dinelson Lamet spiked the need for starting pitching. Urgency to lock down electric shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. lingers.
This will be the ultimate test of the baseball operations department’s Gumbylike f lexibility and creativity, under unprecedented circumstances. How do you balance getting better now, with the Dodgers in sight along the horizon, while ensuring Tatis cements his mailing address? All of it must feel a little like trying to play Tchaikovsky on the piano while wearing oven mitts.
“(Tatis’) situation is a priority,” Padres General Manager A.J. Preller said Monday. “I think we’re in position to try and line up on a deal. We’ll see what happens here over the course of the rest of the offseason and see if we can do that.”
The dance remains delicate. Factors under your control, Sumo wrestling with so much that remains wildly out of your control. How many games will be played next season as baseball weighs waiting out vaccines to buffer safety and increase the chances of some fans returning to ballparks? Potential revenue in 2021 is all over the map.
Noodling on the Tatis situation becomes all the more perplexing because of the murk.
“I’ve never had to factor in that many economic issues,” Encinitas sports agent Barry Axelrod, who does not represent Tatis, said. “Nobody has. This is all new. Most players don’t get there until 24, 25, 26 years old and they have one big shot if they’re performing well.
“A guy like Tatis, you can sign two five-year deals or six-years deal or whatever.”
In shorthand, there’s a chance for Tatis to take two big bites of the apple because of his age. The Padres,
meanwhile, guarantee that first bite happens in San Diego rather than risk arbitration and a mammoth free agency fight with deeppocket teams in 2025.
Axelrod pinpointed another consideration.
“People tend to overlook comfort level and being comfortable,” he said.
Tatis finished second in the NL with 17 home runs and 50 runs scored with a .937 on-base percentage in the pandemic-shortened
season. His remarkable improvement defensively, starting with decision making, caused him to climb to fourth in NL MVP voting.
It’s unclear how durable he can be over a full season, but the tools and potential remain unmistakable. But … starting pitching. But … the bullpen. But … dependable left-handed bats.
The pencil sharpening, gaining steam by the day.
“We’ve spent a lot of time really looking at trying to improve our club with what’s out there free agent time-wise,” Preller said. “This is honestly the time we want to make sure we’re not missing out on anything. I think we’ll start to pivot here pretty soon.
“… (After navigating arbitration and Year 3 players) we’ll start looking at, does it make sense on longterm deals for some guys. Obviously, Fernando will be right there at the top of the list.”
Start with the eight-year, $100 million deal for Braves outfielder and then 21-yearold Ronald Acuña Jr. in April 2019. Something in the range of six or seven years for $120-150 million for Tatis sounds feasible, while still allowing him to sign a monster deal in his late-20s.
Preller said all those swirling money issues “don’t really factor into the Fernando situation.” But they absolutely do. There’s one pot of money. It’s not bottomless, if you’re chasing a real and tantalizing competitive window while also making sure a generational star feels fully fed and watered.
The Padres’ payroll for 2021, with plenty of decisions still to be made, hovers around $115 million. That stood around $147 million, give or take, a season ago. The Padres are expected to land somewhere in the lowto mid-$130 million range next season.
If that rough math squares it means, for now, the Padres have $15-20 million to play with budgetwise before the offseason ends. There are decisions to make in the bullpen, for starters — along with, well, the starters themselves.
Add in Tatis and the pocketbook pickle emerges.
“As far as Tatis and the length of the contract, at the top of (former client, pitcher) Matt Clement’s ability we went out and signed a three-year deal and (former Padres pitcher Jake) Peavy did the same thing when they were 23, 24,” Axelrod said. “If you perform well, you break the bank on the next one. (Tatis is) even younger.”
The whole of it means we’ll learn a lot more about the fancy footwork of the Padres front office, sooner rather than later. They’ve grown into gifted talent hunters and deal makers.
Are they jugglers, too?