SENATE VOTES TO OVERRIDE TRUMP VETO OF DEFENSE BILL

Even if Dems win, Republicans to hold majority for weeks

The Senate votes 81-13 to override President Donald Trump’s veto of the annual military policy bill. It marks the first time in his presidency that Congress has overridden a veto. The bill affirms a pay raise for troops and guides defense policy.

The consequences of Georgia’s twin Senate runoffs are well known: They’ll determine which party controls the Senate in the new Congress.

Right?

Long term, yes, that’s the case. But the circumstances of Georgia’s seats make the near term a bit messy.

One of two Georgia races is a regular election for a sixyear term. The other is a special election for an unexpired term. The timing of the Jan. 5 runoffs, coming two days after the new Congress convenes and 15 days before

President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration, further complicates things.

That means Republicans will have a bare majority of 51 senators to begin the new Congress and potentially in the opening days of Biden’s presidency, regardless of Georgia’s results. At the least, that will allow current Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky to open the Senate’s organizing session in his familiar — and inf luential — post, while the national political spotlight continues to shine on Georgia officials managing another highstakes election.

Here’s how it works: A new Congress is elected every two years. November elections guaranteed Republicans at least 50 Senate seats for the 117th Congress, which convenes for the first time in January as set by federal law. Democrats won 48 Senate seats. The Georgia seats remain up for grabs because no candidates got an outright majority as state law requires. So Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeff ler, both Republicans, face runoffs against their respective Democratic challengers, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock.

One Republican victory would keep the Senate under GOP control throughout the next Congress (barring an unforeseen vacancy). Democrats need a sweep for a 50-50 Senate, positioning Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to tilt the chamber to Democrats with the tiebreaking vote. The quirk that affects the initial Senate majority, though, is that Loeffler will still be a senator to start the new Congress, while Perdue will not. That yields a 5148 advantage for Republicans until the Georgia winners take their oaths of office.

While all 435 House seats are on general election ballots every federal election cycle, the 100 seats of the Senate, where terms are six years, are staggered in three classes. Perdue was elected in the 2014 class. His six-year term began in January 2015 and will end when the current Congress gives way to the new body. Because that happens before the runoffs, Perdue will technically be a former senator when polls open Tuesday.

Loeff ler, alternately, was appointed to the seat that opened when Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson resigned from a six-year term that runs through January 2023. Her matchup against Warnock is for the remainder of that term.

The new Congress convenes Sunday, with Loeff ler still holding office.

Congress will ratify Biden and Harris’ election on Wednesday, but Georgia’s results won’t be settled by then. The runoff elections are expected to be close, given that Biden won the state’s electoral votes by about 12,000 out of 5 million votes, and with another expected large batch of absentee ballots, the initial count could take several days, as it did in November. Further, there’s a three-day window — ending Jan. 8 — for officials to receive overseas and military ballots and for voters who cast provisional ballots to settle questions about their eligibility and have their votes counted. Georgia has until Jan. 22 to certify statewide results.

So it could be weeks before the balance of the Senate is settled.

Practically speaking, the scenarios are mostly about what Democrats can’t do rather than what Republicans will do. If Democrats had secured an outright Senate majority in the November elections, they could have started legislating on Jan. 3 and, with the Democratic House majority, even cast votes on some of Biden’s legislative priorities. They could have held hearings on Biden’s Cabinet nominees, setting up quick votes after the inauguration.

As it is, Democrats’ best hope is that Ossoff and Warnock pull off victories and give them a late start as the majority, probably no earlier than Jan. 23.