NO FINGER-POINTING CAME AFTER DEFEAT
Aztecs able to forget CSU debacle so they could win next game
Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 78-65 win against Colorado State on Monday night at Viejas Arena:
1. An even keel
Two nights after taking an early 26-point lead and blowing it, the Aztecs came out and took an early 26point lead again.
That they did, that they didn’t seem remotely bothered by the smoldering wreckage in the rear-view mirror, shouldn’t surprise anyone. Coach Brian Dutcher learned from the best when things are at their worst.
Steve Fisher, the consummate Midwestern stoic, remained famously even keeled when the seas got rough, which tends to happen at some point over the course of 30-odd games with a group of 19-year-old college students. He didn’t panic. He didn’t yell. He didn’t kick over water coolers, didn’t throw dry-erase markers, didn’t chuck anyone under the bus in the post-mortem news conference, didn’t make knee-jerk lineup changes.
For Dutcher, the rehabilitation started moments after a 38-12 lead had evaporated on national television,
after Colorado State recorded the largest comeback victory in school and Mountain West history despite still trailing by seven points inside a minute to go. He told his players what he always tells them after a big win or a bad loss.
“The NBA mentality,” he calls it, explaining that pros playing an 82-game regular season plus another 20 in the playoffs simply have no time or energy to get too high or too low. The Clippers lost by 51 at home on Dec. 27. Shrug. Two days later, they won by 23. Shrug. A week later, they blew most of a 31-point lead and won by five. Shrug.
Dutcher left the locker room and went to a virtual news conference, and was his usual, upbeat self. He smiled and talked about the momentum swings that are part of the game. He didn’t call out any players for their errors. He praised his team’s “fantastic stretches” and Colorado State for its execution down the stretch. He talked a lot about getting ready for the next game.
No one got a pound of flesh. “That’s college basketball,” he said.
“We can’t let one loss cause two losses,” he said.
The next day at practice, Matt Mitchell and Jordan Schakel, veterans of the program for four years, asked to address their teammates. They accepted responsibility and apologized for their mistakes and vowed they wouldn’t happen again. Mitchell shot 5 of 14 and had five turnovers. Schakel, after playing f lawlessly on defense for the game’s first 64 possessions, had lapses in four of the final 10.
“We just talked about … how that couldn’t happen again,” Mitchell said matter-of-factly. “We just talked about our focus, our concentration, and the fact that we’ve got to be a more mature team.”
Then they went out and had one of the best practices of the season.
Schakel admitted he didn’t sleep well Saturday night. By Sunday, the foul taste was gone from his palate and he was focusing on the next meal.
Sunday night, Schakel said, “I got a great night’s sleep.”
Monday night, he scored a career-high 28 points.
2. The chess match
Playing the same team in the same venue 51 hours apart, the temptation is to tinker. The chess match becomes whether to fix something that’s not broken knowing your opponent is going to try to break it this time.
The SDSU coaches watched film of Saturday’s game and realized they must have done something right because, well, they did lead 38-12. A big reason, Colorado State coach Niko Medved said, is that the Aztecs “surprised us” defensively by switching all ball screens, 1 through 5, even if it meant 6foot-10 Nathan Mensah was stuck on preseason all-conference guard Isaiah Stevens.
The decision for Dutcher and his staff was whether to junk a game plan that helped get a 38-12 lead.
They did.
They still switched ball screens on top but doubleteamed them on the side, hoping to force the Rams to retreat and reset their offense. They also pressured the ball more aggressively while everyone else remained in their gaps to prevent the backdoor cuts that burned them Saturday. And when the Rams rolled the screener into the post, they emphasized getting in front of him instead of playing behind.
“Even though we were guarding them different to start the (second) game,” Dutcher explained, “I 100 percent believe in the way we played them the first game. With a day off, let’s give them a different look to start the game where they’re not comfortable and saying, ‘They’re switching every ball screen.’ Let’s give them something different.”
That they have that luxury, however, speaks to a veteran coaching staff and a veteran roster that, unlike most programs, expends the majority of practice drilling defense. The Aztecs have seven different ball screen coverages, and they can mix and match them as they see fit — sometimes on the f ly during timeouts.
The point is, you can’t do that with a bunch of true freshmen or green coaches. That takes years of practice and game reps, hours upon hours in a darkened film room.
The result: a 37-11 lead and 12 first-half Rams turnovers.
“That’s the beauty of the staff I have working with me,” Dutcher said. “We prepare hard like most coaches do, but I think the game plans we come up with are effective and give our team the best chance to win.”
3. Gaming the metrics
The NCAA released the first edition of its NET metric on Monday morning, and the Aztecs debuted at No. 41, one spot below Colorado State. Monday night’s win elevated them to 38 while dropping the Rams to 40.
But what would have happened had the Rams not scored the game’s final seven points and lost by 20 instead of 13? Would the swing have been even more pronounced?
One criticism of modern metrics like the NET and Kenpom is that they’re not based solely on whether you win or lose, like the antiquated RPI they replaced, but how you win or lose. The computer inputs statistical information from all 40 minutes, treating a possession in garbage time the same as a tie game with 10 seconds left. A basket is a basket is a basket.
The NET simplified its formula after last season, eliminating three of five components. The remaining factors are an ef
ficiency rating, similar to what Kenpom produces from game statistics and streng th of schedule, and something called True Value Index — a secret sauce the NCAA does not share publicly.
Among the components eliminated was a 10-point cap on margin of victory, which theoretically disincentivized running up the score. With that gone, margin of victory — which ultimately translates to better offensive and defensive efficiency — can and does move the needle.
Take Boise State and Kenpom. The Broncos rose from 72nd to 63rd after thumping San Jose State by 52 points last Thursday. Two days later, they beat the same team by a single point … and dropped nine spots back to 72. Two wins against the same team in the same place,
two wildly swings.
Now consider Colorado State’s late run Monday night when the outcome was no longer in doubt. Or Arizona State going from 18 down with two minutes to go to a 12-point loss against the Aztecs on Dec. 10. Or UC Irvine cutting a 28-point deficit with seven minutes left to 19 at the final buzzer.
The Aztecs didn’t let a late lead slip in a 25-point win against Saint Mary’s, and were rewarded with their biggest Kenpom jump of the season — 16 spots to No. 23.
None of that should matter. In the convoluted world of college basketball, with computer metrics potentially inf luencing NCAA Tournament selection, it can and does.
different metric