SCHOOLS

they’re astronomically too high,” said Dr. Mark Sawyer, pediatric infectious disease specialist at Rady Chilmunity, there is probably dren’s Hospital. “We need to some COVID in schools. get back to where we were, The better job schools do of to October ... before the latmaking sure COVID doesn’t est surge took off.” come in (testing, masks, hyIn the Michigan and g iene, social distancing), Washing ton study, schools the less likely it is that offering “hybrid” instrucCOVID will spread.” tion did not contribute to

Schools have shown they the spread, even where can adhere to requirements community levels of COVID for social distancing, uniwere high, Strunk said. versal face masks and Hybrid instruction proper ventilation and have means students are learnhad few outbreaks, said Dr. ing in-person part-time and Howard Taras, a UC San Dilearning online part-time, a ego pediatrician who is adstrategy that reduces the vising local schools on renumber of students in a opening. school building or class

San Diego County has so room at any one time. far identified 19 COVID outThat reduction in capacbreaks at K-12 schools, out ity helps reduce the risk of of 936 outbreaks total. transmission because stu

Most of the county’s dents have more space to do school districts opened in social distancing, experts the fall, but the largest dissay. trict, San Diego Unified, Because the state has and several others are still left reopening decisions up closed. to individual schools and

Another study from Tudistricts, school reopenings lane University based on naare a patchwork in San Ditional data found that ego County. school reopenings did not School districts in ZIP increase COVID-19 hospicodes that have been hardtalizations in counties hit by the virus are still where there were fewer than closed, while districts in 36 to 44 new COVID hospiother areas that had lower talizations per 100,000 peolevels of COVID-19 reple, per week. opened in the fall.

The studies seem to supCOVID-19 staffing shortport arguments by parents, ages, however, have led pediatric experts and othsome of those districts to ers that schools can and temporarily close. should be open to stop the There are big caveats to mounting damage to chilthe Michigan and Washingdren’s academic, mental, ton study, Strunk said. social and physical well-beOne: The study was done ing caused by school clobased on data collected up sures. until November, before the

The findings also adnationwide COVID-19 dress fears that some dissurge, so the study could tricts, such as San Diego have had different results if Unif ied, have remained it were based on current inclosed partly because offiformation. cials believed schools would Two: The study was increase community done before a new, more COVID-19 spread if they recontagious coronavirus varopened. iant was identified in the

One of the studiesS.lendsU. credence to that concern. While this school re

The Michigan and Washsearch is important, Taras ing ton study showed that said, it will become less releschools do contribute to vant once school staffs are spread of COVID-19 when vaccinated and schools are the virus is spreading at able to test students for high rates in the communiCOVID-19 on a frequent baty. sis. Both will help signif icantly reduce the risk of the virus spreading in schools, he said, even if community COVID rates remain high.

“As with everything with COVID-19, any set of recommendations is very shortlived,” he said in an email.

“When asymptomatic virus test screening of student populations becomes

“Once community rates are too high, it is possible that there is little schools can do to diminish the risk,” Strunk said.

Experts say that’s currently the case for San Diego County, where the daily new virus case rate is 53 per 100,000 residents.

“Right now,

I think

more ubiquitous, and when vaccination of staff becomes more common (and both trends could be underway within weeks), the relevance of this research will quickly diminish.”

Teachers and other school staff are expected to be next in line for COVID-19 vaccinations. But it’s unclear how long it will take for the state and counties to vaccinate them.

In a Wednesday letter to Gov. Gavin Newsom, San Diego Unified and six other large California school districts said they are skeptical of plans to lower the standards under which schools can reopen from the current 7 daily new COVID cases per 100,000 to 28 per 100,000.

Some teachers union leaders say 28 is too high to reopen schools. Some districts questioned why Newsom settled on 28.

Many experts say it’s difficult to set any one case rate as a threshold for reopening schools.

“There’s too much fixation on triggers and rates,” said Dr. Robert Schooley, a professor of medicine at UC San Diego who has helped advise San Diego Unified on reopening.

“Although it makes people uncomfortable — particularly people who want to be told if we reach this it will be safe — the numbers are often very dependent on the context,” he said.

“All of these things change with the changing circumstances of the epidemic, which is why it’s important to gather data, and a lot of data, and react to it, rather than just responding to triggers.”

The Michigan and Washing ton study found that inperson schooling was associated with greater spread in Washing ton communities with more than 5 daily new COVID cases per 100,000, while in Michigan, it was over 21 cases per 100,000.

But Strunk noted that those case rates were averaged across each state and do not take into account differences in what’s happening locally with COVID and schools, such as differences in school safety measures — data that is not being collected.

Taras said he has no problem with Newsom’s 28per-100,000 case-rate requirement for reopening schools.

But he doesn’t think

schools should be expanding reopening and offering much more than “appointment-based” learning — for

a few kids at a time — until case rates go into decline.

“The trajectory (of COVID spread) is as important as that lone benchmark figure,” Taras said.