SDSU HAD PRIVATE SENIOR CEREMONY
Dutcher feels bad for players who will not get a proper sendoff
Three thoughts on No. 22 San Diego State’s 78-66 win against Boise State on Thursday night at Viejas Arena:
1. Senior Day
Today is SDSU’s final home game of the season, assuming, of course, Mountain West Commissioner Craig Thompson doesn’t schedule a few more at the last moment.
But operating under a similar existential question of a tree falling in the woods, is it Senior Day if there are no fans or parents to witness it?
And with the NCAA granting everyone an extra year of eligibility, is anyone really a senior?
SDSU opted instead for a private ceremony after practice Friday, with parents sending video messages about their sons and then joining by live Zoom (including Joshua Tomaic’s mother from Spain’s Canary Islands) while coach Brian Dutcher presented the seniors with framed jerseys.
That was fine with Jordan Schakel, one of five seniors on the roster with Matt Mitchell, Trey Pulliam, Terrell Gomez and Tomaic.
“It’s OK,” Schakel said. “Every Senior Night I’ve seen, guys get a little emotional. That’s not what I want to do before a game.”
Schakel insists he won’t make a decision until after the season about accepting the NCAA’s blanket offer, although most folks in and around the program expect him to enter the NBA Draft and turn pro. If Justinian Jessop, the Mountain West’s alltime leader in 3-pointers from Boise State, can be drafted (51st overall by the Golden State Warriors last year) with similar size and skills, you figure Schakel will take his chances as well.
Pulliam, Gomez and Tomaic remain mysteries, each with compelling reasons to return.
Not so with Mitchell, who will finish this season in the school’s career top 10 in numerous statistical categories, most notably scoring (1,384), starts (102) and victories (89). After nearly leaving after last year, he has talked all season like this is his last.
Asked earlier this week if that’s the correct read, Mitchell said: “I would say it’s pretty accurate. It’s something that I try not to focus on, that decision. But I am on track to graduate this year. I am on track to play my last two (home) games as we speak today, in the present. I’m a senior in college.”
Today, then, will be his final game at Viejas Arena.
Coach Brian Dutcher, for one, wishes they could give Mitchell and whoever else might leave a more dignified farewell.
“That’s one of the saddest things,” Dutcher said, “that Jordan, Matt, Trey and Joshua and Terrell aren’t going to have their families walk out there before the game with them to be recognized and honored for their contributions to San Diego State basketball and this university over the years. … It’s just another moment we’re missing due to this COVID.”
2. Drawing it up
With 1:34 left in a tie game and Boise State on a 21-6 run, Dutcher called timeout and reached for his whiteboard and a dry erase marker. When he was finished scribbling and the players returned to the floor, Mitchell had an and-one basket 10 seconds later.
It didn’t win them the game. Boise State made them sweat the final seconds and forced overtime. But the basket and ensuing free throw staunched the bleeding and, as much as anything else, kept them from losing in regulation.
Here’s what happened: Dutcher modified a play that is a modification of a staple cross-screen play the Aztecs run early and often in most games. Because they were inbounding from the sideline, he drew up a new entry.
Pulliam inbounded to Tomaic, who handed it back to him. Then Tomaic faked a down screen for Schakel before popping back to the perimeter to receive a pass from Pulliam and another handoff. That safely got the ball to the left side of the floor.
Meanwhile, Schakel cut diagonally across the lane and set a back screen on Emmanuel Akot, who was covering Mitchell. Derrick Alston Jr., on Schakel, had two choices at that point: emergency switch onto Mitchell or open his body to allow Akot through the screen. He did neither, and Akot was in effect screened by his own man, forced to take the high road over and around Alston.
That created the splitsecond opening that Pulliam needed to drop a bounce pass into Mitchell on the left block for a basket as Akot, arriving late, fouled him from behind. If Mitchell’s not open, Schakel comes off a screen set by Tomaic for a 3 in a variation of what is known as “CD” in coachspeak — cross screen, down screen.
So why go to it at such a critical juncture?
It might have had something to do with Boise State’s games last week against
Utah State. Late in the first half, the Aggies ran a similar play where their 3-man sets a diagonal back screen in the lane for 4-man Justin Bean … against Akot. Akot got stuck in the screen, and Bean scored easily.
The Aggies ran it several more times during the series with similar success.
“It’s one we’ve had in our playbook,” Dutcher said. “I thought the opportunity to get Matt in the low post or, if they take it away, get Jordan curling around for a 3 was an opportunity we had to take. And then I leave it to Trey Pulliam to make that decision. If Matt’s open, he delivers the ball on time, on target, and Matt finished.
“It was a nice play out of a timeout that the kids executed well.”
3. Computer compassion
SDSU blew a 17-point lead and survived in overtime
at home against a team it was favored to beat, yet climbed several spots to 21st in the NCAA’s NET metric, 18th in Kenpom, 18th in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index and 11th in Bart Torvik’s Trank. SDSU is one of just 12 teams currently in the top 25 of seven major metrics.
It’s safe to say: The computer loves the Aztecs.
In the old days, the chief metric was RPI, or Ratings Percentage Index, that exclusively considered results by you and your opponents, no matter the score or ingame statistics. The advent of more sophisticated analytics allows dozens of stats to be included, which can be a good or bad thing.
In the Aztecs’ case, it’s the former.
They have climbed from 46 in the NET after being swept by Utah State in midJanuary to 21 not just by winning nine straight (eight against significantly inferior opposition) but by exceeding computer expectations in eight of the nine. They did it again Thursday, thanks to a charging call against Mitchell with two seconds to go in regulation that led to overtime.
Wait, what?
The Aztecs actually helped themselves by not winning in regulation. Had Mitchell not plowed into Boise State’s Abu Kigab and scored at the buzzer, they would have won by two points in a game the Kenpom algorithm, for instance, predicted them to win by six.
Instead, they go to OT and outscore the Broncos 15-3 while holding them to 1 of 11 shooting.
Instead of shooting 40 percent (slightly above what SDSU has been allowing opponents), the Broncos finish at 36.4 percent. Instead of the Aztecs being plus-eight on the boards, they finish plus-14.
Those kinds of stats matter. SDSU is one of four teams nationally that are at least plus-15 in point differential, plus-5.4 in rebound margin, plus-3.5 in turnover margin. The others — Baylor (2), Houston (4) and UC Santa Barbara (42) — are all viewed favorably by the NET as well.
Or you can look at this way: The NET sorts your opponents into quadrant levels, and SDSU is 21st despite being 0-3 in Quad 1 games — the most difficult tier — while the 11 teams immediately behind them all have at least three Q1 wins.
The computer likes that you win. The computer loves how you win.
Calgary at Ottawa, 10 a.m. Philadelphia at Buffalo, 10 a.m. Washington at New Jersey, 10 a.m. Columbus at Nashville, noon Carolina at Florida, 4 p.m. Dallas at Tampa Bay, 4 p.m. Pittsburgh at N.Y. Islanders, 4 p.m.