MILITARY WORRIES ABOUT TALIBAN ATTACKS
Militants could threaten cities without progress on deal, commanders warn
Fighting in Afghanistan will intensify sharply and Taliban militants could threaten major cities unless a Biden administration diplomatic push to end the 20-year conflict yields results in the next two months, according to two senior U.S. commanders.
The tight time frame is driven by a May 1 deadline to withdraw the remaining U.S. troops from Afghanistan, as required under a deal with the Taliban that President Joe Biden inherited from the Trump administration.
Biden has not decided whether to proceed with the withdrawal, U.S. officials said. The troop level, which was announced as 2,500, is temporarily as much as 1,000 higher because of overlaps as units arrive before departing ones leave, officials said.
The Afghan government was left out of the Trump agreement. So without a broader diplomatic deal to restrain Taliban fighters, the Afghan government’s control over key population areas, including the capital, Kabul, is likely to rapidly deteriorate, especially if the American pullout goes ahead, the Pentagon said.
“If we withdraw and no deal was made with the Taliban, I think the
government of Afghanistan is going to be in for a very stiff fight to retain possession” of towns and cities, Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., the top U.S. commander in the Middle East, said in an interview Saturday after talks in Kabul.
The danger that Afghanistan could rapidly descend into deeper violence and chaos that would allow al-Qaeda to reemerge has led Biden to try to pull off a diplomatic breakthrough, though neither the Afghan government nor the Taliban seems eager to reach a deal.
The Taliban, which took power in 1996, was driven out of Kabul five years later when the United States invaded in response to the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks by alQaeda, the militant group led by Osama bin Laden that had taken refuge in Afghanistan.
If there is no deal by May 1, Biden could decide to keep U.S. forces in place temporarily to give the peace talks more time or keep them there indefinitely. But that would probably prompt the Taliban to renew attacks on American troops — assaults that have mostly stopped since the U.S.-Taliban deal in February 2020, officials said.
Since then, the Taliban has increased attacks on the Afghan military and civilians, especially in the south in Kandahar and Helmand provinces.
Army Gen. Austin “Scott” Miller, the top American commander in Kabul, warned that a U.S. withdrawal would leave the Afghan armed forces without vital support, especially for the fledgling air force, which relies on contractors to maintain its planes and helicopters.
“When you start talking about removing our presence … certain things like air, air support and maintenance of that air support becomes more and more problematic,” Miller said in an interview.
All U.S. military personnel and thousands of contractors who help maintain equipment and supply Afghan troops would have to leave the country under the deal former President Donald Trump made with the Taliban. An additional 6,500 military personnel in Afghanistan from NATO and other allies would also probably depart.
Among Afghan soldiers, there is growing resignation that they may have to fight on alone, even with the new U.S. administration seeking to jump start peace talks.
“To me, the Americans have already left. Fighting the enemy is now our own responsibility and we will continue to persevere,” said Mohammad Sediq, 30, the commander of an Afghan army outpost in the eastern province of Laghman.
The base that sits in a broad valley known as Levano Dara was in an area once patrolled by American troops. Now it is defended by 20 Afghan troops and flanked by mountains held by Taliban fighters, who plant bombs on the roads at night.
The road leading from Kabul to the province has become more dangerous, with insurgents high up in the mountains attacking vehicles driving through the valley. Five people in a United Nations convoy were killed when it was attacked on the road in February.