LEADING CLOSER CANDIDATE
Pagan wants the job, and, when healthy, has the right stuff
Emilio Pagan is one of the reasons the Padres were comfortable not retaining Kirby Yates or Trevor Rosenthal in the offseason.
He may end up essentially being the reason.
That he could be the Padres’ closer might seem to be an unlikely occurrence after last season, when there were times it seemed he could hardly be trusted at any point in a game. He gave up runs in five of his first 11 appearances with his new team, blowing leads in four of them.
There was an underlying reason.
Pagan began experiencing pain in his right arm, not sharp or even severe but more discomfort, after he had thrown a couple times in the intrasquad games the Padres played at Petco Park in early July.
It was a different kind of year, but he figured it was the same old soreness.
“I could tell something wasn’t right,” Pagan recalled. “It wasn’t necessarily that I felt injured. That’s why I continued to try to pitch through it. I just figured it was like normal spring training. In February, everybody goes through a couple outings of a dead-arm period while they’re building up strength. Nobody had done the summer camp thing before. I thought it was like normal spring training and it would go away. I tried to pitch through it, tried to pitch through it.”
By the time he knew it was something significant, the season had started and the Padres were playing every day in a schedule crammed to get the most games out of the fewest days. And relievers were falling all around the Padres bullpen.
“I didn’t want to go on the (injured list) because our bullpen is already banged up,” Pagan said. “If I go down too, that puts Pierce Johnson and Matt Strahm and other guys on the hook for more innings.”
Strahm was pitching through knee soreness. Johnson was pitching more than anyone else. Everyone was adjusting to the new strain on arms caused by a late start and hurried pace.
So Pagan pitched on. He tried to compensate for the soreness and lack of strength by sort of trying to create velocity and movement with alterations to his delivery. So, then his mechanics were out of whack and he wasn’t throwing hard or with the same vitality to his pitches.
His fastball averaged 95.5 mph in 2019, yet through Aug. 30 of last year just 23 percent of the fastballs he threw traveled even 95 mph. Just one-third of his fastballs even reached 94, just two reached 96. Worse, the late movement that makes his 95 mph seem faster to
batters was gone.
Pagan allowed nine runs and struck out 13 in his first 15 innings (15 games).
The pain never went away. Yet he never stopped pitching.
“You want to talk about a dude who is a fierce competitor and will take the ball every day,” bullpen coach Ben Fritz said. “He was battling through some things, and because he was a competitor, not saying much. He wasn’t his best. Me personally, I would give him the ball every day knowing the compete you’re going to get on the mound from that guy.”
Finally, after the Padres had acquired Rosenthal and were about to get Dan Altavilla and after Drew Pomeranz had returned from a time on the injured list, Pagan got his rest. He was placed on the IL on Aug. 30 with biceps inflammation.
When he returned 10 days later, he was pain-free and able to extend his arm in its normal fashion.
The fastball was back, with more life. He reached 95 mph 64 percent of the time, well more than double what he had previously. He got to 96 mph on 11 of the 53 fastballs (21 percent) he threw in that span.
In his final seven outings of the season, Pagan allowed two runs (both in one game) over seven innings. His batting average allowed was down more than 80 points to .125, and he struck out 10.
“You started to see the stuff match his intensity and competitiveness,” Fritz said.
So far in spring, it appears the symbiotic relationship remains.
That is particularly good news for the Padres.
The team has talked about a closer by committee. But while it is probable that multiple pitchers get save opportunities based on matchups and the desire to keep pitchers fresh, especially in a season that is almost three times longer than last year’s, it was always a dubious proposition to believe the Padres were willing to spread out their saves between three or four pitchers.
Of the 96 teams to go to the playoffs in the past 10 full seasons, 68 (71 percent) have had a pitcher with at least 30 saves, 80 (83 percent) have had a pitcher with at least 25 saves, and 87 (91 percent) have had a pitcher with at least 20 saves.
Manager Jayce Tingler acknowledged the preference that one pitcher grab the job.
“I think in an ideal world, you’d like to have a set ninth-inning guy,” he said. “Who that is, are we open to a committee, are we open to matchups? We are. We would love to come out of here feeling, ‘Well, hey this is our ninth-inning guy.’ … We’re open to a lot of things.”
Pomeranz, Johnson and others figure to get some turns at the final three outs of victories. But the name mentioned most by those in the organization as the pitcher they expect to assume the role is Pagan.
He saved 20 games for the Rays in 2019, 12 of them after Aug. 3. In doing so, he allowed a .179 batting average to right-handed hitters and a .179 average to left-handed hitters. He struck out 96 batters in 70 innings.
He has the mentality and the resilient arm. Between 2019 and ’20 his 1.44 ERA in 26 games (25 innings) pitching on no days’ rest is fourth best in the majors.
“I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was looking forward to getting some ninth innings,” he said. “It’s always been a dream of mine to be a closer in the big leagues. We have so many guys that can do it. I wouldn’t be upset if we did a committee thing. But I know I can get the job done, and I just hope I get the chance.”