STATE NEARING TARGET THAT WOULD EASE RULES
Providers close to administering 4 million doses in disadvantaged communities
California is on the precipice of administering 4 million COVID-19 vaccine doses in its most disadvantaged areas — a hurdle that, when cleared, would trigger a rewrite of the state’s reopening blueprint to make it easier for counties to more widely reopen businesses and other public spaces.
State data show that, as of Monday, providers had doled out 3.93 million doses in the targeted communities, which fall within the lowest quartile of a socioeconomic measurement tool called the California Healthy Places Index.
On reaching 4 million doses, California will relax one of the metrics necessary for counties to progress into the lower tiers of its four-rung reopening road map.
As it stands now, counties have to record a coronavirus case rate — adjusted based on the number of tests performed — of below 4.0 new cases per day per 100,000 people to move into the second-least-restrictive orange tier. When the blueprint is revised, the requirement would be loosened to under 6.0.
Entering the most lenient yellow tier would necessitate an adjusted daily new case rate below 2.0 per 100,000 people, compared with the current requirement of less than 1.0.
The other two data points used to determine tier assignments — the rate of positive test results and a health-equity metric intended to ensure that the positive test rate in poorer communities is not significantly higher than the county’s overall figure — would remain unchanged.
While the imminent revision to California’s reopening road map won’t affect those counties that have already moved into the orange or yellow tiers, it would make it easier for them to avoid potentially backsliding, should their coronavirus case rates creep up.
The changes would, however, position some areas to enter the orange tier more rapidly.
San Diego County is currently in the red tier.
Typically, counties need to record two straight weeks of qualifying data to advance to a less-restrictive tier and must remain in a tier for at least three
weeks before moving again.
However, revising the blueprint can muddy that timeline. When the state met its initial goal of administering 2 million vaccines in the hardest-hit and most disadvantaged areas last month, the revised metric that went into effect — which made it easier for counties to exit the state’s most proscriptive purple tier — applied retroactively.
That meant counties were allowed to move forward if they had two weeks’ worth of qualifying data under the new metric.
In other words, if a county is already within the new range of what would be considered the orange tier, then it could potentially advance to that level as soon as this week, provided its numbers hold steady.
New tier assignments will be announced today.
As counties advance through the tier framework, they can gradually lessen restrictions.
On reaching the orange tier, counties can allow bars to reopen outdoors with some modifications, and bars also are no longer required to serve food.
Amusement parks can reopen at up to 25 percent capacity, and fan attendance is allowed at 33 percent capacity for outdoor sports and live performances.
Capacity restrictions can also be lifted in stores, although social distancing and other safety modifications still apply; houses of worship, museums, zoos and aquariums can raise their indoor capacity to 50 percent from 25 percent; restaurants and movie theaters can raise indoor capacity to 50 percent capacity or 200 people from 25 percent or 100 people (whichever is fewer); and indoor gyms and yoga studios can increase capacity to 25 percent from 10 percent.
Bowling alleys can reopen with modifications at 25 percent capacity. Card rooms and satellite wagering sites can also reopen indoors at 25 percent capacity.
Offices in nonessential industries can also reopen, though the state says workers should still be encouraged to work remotely.
For the last month, California has devoted 40 percent of its COVID-19 vaccine supply to residents in the state’s most disadvantaged areas — a strategy officials said would help address inequities that have persisted throughout the inoculation campaign, as well as make sure those most at risk of the coronavirus have access to the shots.
However, disparities still linger. The number of doses administered in targeted communities is 578,000 less than any other HPI quartile, state data show. By comparison, more than 5.8 million vaccines have been provided in the highest-quartile areas.
Providers throughout California have doled out almost 20 million total vaccine doses to date, according to figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and 33.6 percent of residents have received at least one dose.
Roughly 17.8 percent of Californians are fully vaccinated.
Health officials and experts continue to urge residents to remain vigilant, especially as the state reopens and the number of coronavirus variants continues to grow in California, and other states report new surges.
Federal officials have been particularly alarmed at rises in cases elsewhere in the country and on Monday said this not the moment to return to normal.
“As community businesses begin to reopen, these findings underscore the vast impact of a single event affecting communities, schools, families, and fragile elderly,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters in a briefing Monday. “And it emphasizes the impressive transmissibility of this virus and the continued need for ... reducing the number of people indoors, improving building ventilation, and utilizing outdoor spaces as the weather allows.”
The next few weeks will be a major test of whether California can avoid more COVID-19 spikes, with more reopening expected and the potential fallout from the Easter holiday still unknown.
Experts note that any resurgence in activity — especially indoors — can affect transmission rates. According to a study released Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the reopening of a single indoor bar in a rural Illinois community in February has now been linked to the infections of at least 46 people. The reopening also led to infections among bar attendees that affected a long-term care facility, leaving one resident there hospitalized, and resulted in the closure of a school affecting 650 students.
While coronavirus transmission remains low in California, there’s no guarantee that the state won’t experience a new wave of infections. Recently, there have been some hints that the rate of the coronavirus’s retreat may be starting to slow in California.
Over the last week, the state has reported an average of 2,705 new COVID-19 cases per day — a slight increase from the average of 2,702 daily cases recorded two weeks ago, according to data compiled by the Los Angeles Times.
It’s too soon to say whether that bump will prove to be a blip or the start of a trend.
Some point out that California’s reopening strategy is more conservative than those in other states, where mask rules have been rescinded and cases are now going up.
“I am very cautiously optimistic that we are on the right course here in California, as compared to other states that may have dropped mask mandates,” said Dr. Robert Kim-Farley, a UCLA medical epidemiologist. “If Californians continue to look to community guidance as we open up the economy, we should be able to stay on this same downward trend and avoid some of the resurgence of disease that we are seeing in other parts of the country.”