CASES FALLING IN SOME REGIONS OF CALIF.
Experts hopeful end of surge is near; San Diego records 14K new cases
After weeks of an unprecedented surge in coronavirus cases that challenged hospitals, schools and other institutions around the state, there are growing indications that the wave spawned by the Omicron variant is flattening and, in some parts of California, even beginning to wane.
Health officials in San Francisco said Thursday they believe they have passed the peak of the latest wave. And in other regions of the state, there’s cautious optimism that the days of exponential growth may be in the rearview mirror.
But San Diego County experienced another spike in cases Thursday, with 14,025 new cases reported, up from 9,382 on Wednesday. There were also 89 new hospitalizations recorded and six additional deaths.
Officials warn that hospitals will continue to face significant challenges in the coming days and weeks, and that Californians need to keep their guard up.
The California COVID Assessment Tool, published by the state Department of Public Health, estimates that the state’s effective transmission rate as of Thursday was 0.77, meaning each infected Californian is transmitting the virus to fewer than one person, on average.
A rate that’s substantially less than 1.0 indicates the virus’ spread is decreasing.
However, as has often been the case throughout the two-year-old pandemic, the picture is not uniform. Out of five state-defined regions, two — the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California — have estimated effective transmission rates below 1.0.
Both the San Joaquin Valley and Greater Sacramento are hovering around that baseline, meaning spread is likely stable. And in rural Northern California, the estimated rate is 1.15, which indi
cates increasing spread.
But conditions in the Bay Area and Southern California — two regions hit early and hard by Omicron — may foreshadow similar trends elsewhere.
“We can now confidently say that we are on the beginning of a downward trajectory,” said Dr. Grant Colfax, the director of health for San Francisco. According to state data, San Francisco averaged nearly 2,700 cases a day from Jan. 3 to Jan. 9 but is now averaging about 2,000 cases a day.
But he added, “The surge is not over yet . ... Hospitalizations, which trail the peak in cases, will still continue to go up. We are urging people to remain particularly vigilant for a little bit longer. Cases are still very high.”
While it may take a few days to account for backlogs from the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, California’s daily case count has decreased recently.
According to data released Thursday that reflect numbers through Wednesday, California was averaging 104,000 cases a day for the most recent seven-day period, a 13 percent drop from the prior week’s rate of 120,000. At what may prove to be the peak of the Omicron wave, California’s daily case rate fluctuated between 120,000 and 122,000 — the highest of the pandemic.
The seven-day statewide positivity rate, the share of tests that confirm coronavirus infection, also has fallen from 23 percent to 20.7 percent over the last week. The positivity rate in San Diego County as of Wednesday was 29.3 percent.
One important caveat is that reported case counts don’t capture everyone who is infected. Some people might never get tested because
their symptoms are mild or nonexistent, while others may use at-home tests and not disclose their results to be captured in any
official count.
Even if cases have topped out, it will still take time for California to shake off the worst of Omicron. Public health officials have long noted it can take weeks after infections decline for coronavirus-related hospitalizations to likewise fall.
And in the meantime, hospitals are still struggling to manage patients who need care for all reasons, not just because they’re afflicted with COVID-19. Data released this week show the total number of people hospitalized statewide is approaching the peak of last winter’s surge.
Health care systems in San Diego and other parts of the state are also strained by staff shortages, in part because workers may be unavailable after becoming infected.
But the latency between cases and hospitalizations may not be as long as in prior waves, given the growing indications that, for many, Omicron causes less-severe disease than the previously dominant Delta variant.
A study that analyzed more than 52,000 Omicron cases and nearly 17,000 Delta cases within the Kaiser Permanente Southern California system from Nov. 30 to Jan. 1 found that, compared to Delta, Omicron
was associated with a 53 percent reduction in the risk of symptomatic hospitalization, a 74 percent reduction in the risk of intensive-care admission and a 91 percent reduction in the risk of death.
The median length of stay for a hospitalized Omicron patient in the Kaiser study was also significantly shorter: 1.5 days, compared with five days for Delta.
But even with Omicron’s generally milder nature, officials say the avalanche of infections in recent weeks likely means there will be more COVID-19 fatalities.
“Between the increases in deaths and hospitalizations, there should be no place for complacency,” said Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles County’s public health director. “While Omicron is not causing the same proportion of severe illness as last winter ... it is substantially increasing cases of severe illness.”
Hospitalizations are now rising at a slower rate than earlier in the Omicron wave, state data show.
As of Wednesday, 15,393 coronavirus-positive patients were hospitalized statewide, up 19 percent from a week ago.
That’s a far gentler rise than from Jan. 5 to 12, when the patient count swelled 49 percent, and the week before that, when it ballooned 69 percent.
Health officials noted that it’s important for people to get vaccinated or boosted for COVID-19 and get their flu shot as well to reduce hospitalizations from usual winter illnesses, such as influenza and pneumonia.
According to the latest available state data, unvaccinated Californians are 4.1 times more likely to get COVID-19, six times more likely to be hospitalized and almost 18 times more likely to die from the disease than their fully vaccinated counterparts.
Statewide, 68.7 percent of all Californians are fully vaccinated, according to data compiled by the Los Angeles Times.