RUSSIA MAKES GAINS IN UKRAINE’S EAST
Progress edges Moscow closer to overrunning Luhansk
DRUZHKIVKA, Ukraine
Ukrainian forces dug in for a last-ditch defense against Russian advances Wednesday in Luhansk province, where the invaders now threaten to overrun two major cities that had resisted their halting progress.
The prospect of a Russian takeover of the embattled cities, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, left Ukrainian commanders with the stark choice to stay and fight, risking severed supply lines and the encirclement of thousands of defenders, or withdraw and forfeit the last major urban centers in Luhansk, part of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region.
For weeks, the Russians had been content to lay back and fire artillery and rockets on Ukrainian forces before trying to push forward with tanks and troops. This strategy culminated in an apparent breakthrough Wednesday
as the Russians seized three strategic villages, the regional governor of Luhansk, Serhiy Haidai, conceded.
From the villages — Mirna Dolina, Podlisne and Toshkivka — Russian troops have gained higher ground to fire on Lysychansk,
including with shorter-range artillery.
“The last city is Lysychansk, and it will be very hard here; a lot of good guys will die,” said Sergiy, a Ukrainian soldier defending the city who gave only his first name for security reasons.
While the villages are small, their collapse within days of one another amounts to a significant breach in Ukraine’s defenses, bringing Russian forces to the doorstep of Lysychansk and threatening the dwindling supply routes into the city.
“The surprising aspect here is that Ukraine has chosen to reinforce as Russian forces inch closer to the city,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a research group in Virginia. “Both cities, Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, could fall in the near term.”
That could open the way for Russia to seize Luhansk and neighboring Donetsk province, known collectively as Donbas.
Still, military analysts suggested it was premature to say Russia was on the cusp of a decisive turn in its 4-month-old invasion.
“Russia may not have the forces to exploit this localized offensive and will find itself in a grinding fight against yet another set of Ukrainian defensive lines,” Kofman said.
The Russian advance was “a clear setback for Ukrainian defenses” in the region, although not necessarily the sign of a broader collapse, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a research group based in Washington.
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian official overseeing the country’s push to join the European Union said Wednesday that she’s “100 percent” certain all 27 EU nations will approve Ukraine’s EU candidacy during a summit this week.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed similar optimism, calling it a “crucial moment” for Ukraine. Ukraine’s membership bid is the top order of business for EU leaders meeting in Brussels.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna said the decision could come as soon as today, when the leaders’ summit starts.
EU candidate status, which can be granted only if the existing member countries agree unanimously, is the first step toward membership. It does not provide any security guarantees or an automatic right to join the bloc.
Zelenskyy said he spoke with a total of 11 EU leaders Wednesday, following calls with nine the day before, in another indication of how important EU candidacy is for Ukraine.