BRACKET PREVIEW: ALABAMA ZEROES IN ON 1ST NO. 1 SEED
There could be some new faces on the top line of the NCAA tournament come March.
Yes, usual suspects like all of last year’s No. 1 seeds — Arizona, Baylor, Gonzaga and Kansas — still harbor plausible hopes of replicating the feat. Kansas has the second-most appearances ever as a No. 1 seed with 15. Arizona has seven, tied for fifth all-time with Virginia (which could play its way into the conversation for its first appearance on the top line since 2019).
But North Carolina (17 all-time)? The Tar Heels won’t end up as a No. 1 seed this year. Ditto for Duke (14) and Kentucky (12). It’s an uphill climb for Illinois, a top seed two years ago, and Michigan (another 2021 No. 1 seed) would be fortunate just to play its way into the field of 68.
So it could very well be a different look at the top when the field is unveiled in a little less than six weeks, with seven candidates who have not been No. 1 seeds in the 21st century (if ever).
Alabama (Never): Three times a No. 2 seed (1987, 2002 and 2021) under three different coaches, the Crimson Tide is unbeaten in SEC play this season. Alabama arguably has the best chance of anyone this season at becoming a first-time No. 1 seed behind star freshman Brandon Miller.
Kansas State (Never): The Wildcats won’t win every close game they’re in this year (Iowa State made sure of that last week), but they’re still 18-3 and have the comeback player of the year in Keyontae Johnson leading an impressive revival. K-State’s seeding peak is a No. 2 (the Jacob Pullen-led 2010 team). It isn’t far off that, though there’s plenty of work left in the grueling Big 12.
Marquette (Never): The Golden Eagles have never landed anything more than a No. 3 seed, and that is probably the neighborhood they’ll end up in this season. Yet they’re 8-1 since Christmas, and Tyler Kolek is one of the country’s finest tablesetters. If they get into the barn with just one or two more losses, a No. 1 seed isn’t out of the question (depending on how others fare, of course).
Tennessee (Never): A three-time No. 2 seed (2006, 2008 and 2019), the Volunteers own the nation’s most efficient defense, according to KenPom.com, and just dispatched Texas by 11 over the weekend. They don’t have as deep a set of victories as some other teams in the No. 1 seed mix, but the SEC will provide enough opportunities to rectify that between now and midMarch.
TCU (Never): The Horned Frogs haven’t reached back-to-back tournaments since 1952-53 (a feat they’re closing in on), so landing on the top line is hardly the expectation around Fort Worth. They’re the most unlikely of this bunch to get there, especially after dropping four of seven, but they won’t be lacking chances to pad their profile in the coming weeks.
Houston (1983): The Cougars haven’t been a No. 1 seed since the days of Phi Slama Jama. Even with a loss earlier this month to Temple, ending that drought is in play. Led by veteran guard Marcus Sasser, Houston possesses a miserly defense and a sharp (if less heralded) offense.
Purdue (1996): The Boilermakers were a No. 1 seed three times under Gene Keady (1988, 1994 and 1996) but have topped out on the No. 2 line under Matt Painter (2018). They’ve also been at least a No. 5 seed in every tournament held since 2016. With Zach Edey providing an every-game mismatch in the post, Purdue is poised to end its No. 1 seed drought after 27 years.
Field notes
Last four included: West Virginia, Texas A&M, Penn State, Nevada
First four on the outside: Pittsburgh, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Arizona State
Next four on the outside: Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Seton Hall, Oregon
Moving in: Cornell, Fairleigh Dickinson, Furman, Maryland-Eastern Shore, Saint Louis, Siena, Southeastern Louisiana, USC, Southern Mississippi, Tennessee-Martin, Texas A&M, UNC Asheville, Utah Valley, Vermont, West Virginia, Youngstown State
Moving out: Arizona State, Iona, Longwood, Marshall, Milwaukee, Morgan State, Nicholls, Ohio State, Princeton, St. Francis (Pa.), Samford, Seattle, SIU Edwardsville, UMass Lowell, VCU, Wisconsin
Conference call: Big Ten (9), SEC (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Big East (5), Mountain West (4), Pac-12 (3), American Athletic (2), West Coast (2)
South Region
Purdue looks more and more like a clear-cut top overall seed, for the moment, anyway. Alabama’s loss over the weekend to Oklahoma solidified that . ... Connecticut dips after last week’s loss to Xavier. The Huskies have lost six of eight since their 14-0 start, but have a chance to get well this week at DePaul and Georgetown . ... While some of the borderline Big Ten teams have stumbled in the last couple weeks, Maryland’s three wins in four games have helped solidify its standing. The Terrapins are good across all metrics and have no bad losses on their résumé.
West Region
After a road sweep of the Washington schools, Arizona is up to the No. 1 line. The Wildcats are 7-2 in Quadrant 1 games, more victories than any team other than Purdue . ... College of Charleston saw its 20-game winning streak end, leaving Pat Kelsey’s team with its first loss outside of Quadrant 1 . ... One of the most valuable opportunities of the week is Providence’s visit to Xavier. The Friars are already tied for the Big East lead and are 3-4 in Quad 1 games, but a victory would easily be the best result away from home this season for Ed Cooley’s bunch.
Midwest Region
Iowa is 5-5 in Quad 1 games, with plenty more chances to come during the back half of Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes get Northwestern and Illinois at home this week . ... Indiana has won five consecutive conference games for the first time since 2016, when it won the Big Ten regular-season title . ... Eastern Washington is one of six teams remaining that are undefeated in conference play, joining Alabama (SEC), Colgate (Patriot), Florida Atlantic (Conference USA), Oral Roberts (Summit) and Saint Mary’s (WCC).
East Region
North Carolina faces an pivotal stretch over the next two weeks: Pitt at home, trips to Duke and Wake Forest, and then Clemson and Miami at home in a threeday stretch. The Tar Heels have a real chance to improve their seeding in that span . ... Rutgers got swept by Iowa, but is 6-2 against the rest of the Big Ten and still has two games against last-place Minnesota.