San Diego Union-Tribune

UNLV at No. 25 Aztecs

- MARK ZEIGLER

Records: UNLV 16-8, 5-7 MW; SDSU 19-5,10-2

Series history: SDSU leads 41-37 after once trailing 26-6. The Aztecs have won nine of the last 10 and 20 of 22 since 2014, including 76-67 in Las Vegas on Dec. 31.

Rebels update: They opened the season 10-0 for the first time in 32 years (when Jerry Tarkanian was coach and they reached the NCAA Final), lost seven of the next nine and are 4-1 in their last five. They have wins at New Mexico and home against Nevada. Their last trip to San Diego was fruitful, leading by 31 at USD and winning 95-78. Oklahoma transfer EJ Harkless is second in the Mountain West in scoring at 18.1 points and had a career-high 33 in a 69-59 win at Wyoming on Wednesday. Keshon Gilbert (12.3, up from 2.6 last season) and Ole Miss transfer Luis Rodriguez (11.5) are also averaging double figures. They are better at the defensive end, ranking 65th nationally in the Kenpom metric and third nationally in the percentage of opponent possession­s that end in turnovers (25.6 percent). They’re second in turnover margin (plus-6.2) and fourth in turnovers forced (18.3). SDSU had a seasonhigh 22 turnovers — nearly double its average — in the first meeting and hasn’t had more than 13 since. Their magic number is 72 points; they’re 14-0 when holding opponents to 72 or fewer. Colorado transfer Elijah Parquet was out injured in the first game but returned Jan. 21. The Rebels are 2-6 without him, 14-1 when he starts.

Aztecs update: They are up to 22 in both Kenpom and the NET, although they started the season at 18 in the former and opened at 45 when in the latter when it was released in early December. They are still a 7 seed in the latest projected bracket by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, currently matched against 10 seed USC in the opening round. He has Nevada as a 10, Boise State and New Mexico as 11s, and Utah State among his second four teams out. SDSU historical­ly has not played well in afternoon tips or on a major network, and this game features both. But they’ve won both games in that scenario this season, 76-67 at UNLV on Dec. 31 on CBS and 80-75 at Wyoming a week later, also on CBS. The Aztecs have won 12 of their last 13 Mountain West games at Viejas Arena (the lone loss coming this season against New Mexico) and 30 of their last 34. The Kenpom metric gives SDSU an 81 percent chance of winning, with a predicted score of 76-66. Jaedon LeDee appears to be returning to early season form, averaging 9.8 points over his last five games and hitting double figures against Utah State (14) for the first time since Dec. 12 and only the second time in the last 21 games after opening the season with 11, 23 and 14 points.

Next up: Wednesday at Fresno State (8 p.m., CBSSN)

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United States