2 GOP mayors plus former one plot their next moves
San Diego County looks to be tough political terrain for three prominent Republicans — two current mayors and a former one.
El Cajon’s Bill Wells, Coronado’s Richard Bailey and San Diego’s ex-chief executive Kevin Faulconer are attempting big political moves, or at least being talked up about doing so.
All three have focused on the region’s homelessness crisis and, to varying degrees, crime, among other issues atop voters’ minds.
But the path to potential higher office for Wells and Bailey are steep climbs. Faulconer is quietly charting a possible route back to City Hall, but that too would be a rocky road.
The continued Democratic dominance in San Diego County leaves limited options for Republicans to find space on the larger political stage. The GOP does, however, continue to hold on in pockets of the region such as Coronado, parts of East County and North County, and, at the more granular level, in some smaller cities and school districts.
Wells recently announced he will run against Democratic Rep. Sara Jacobs in the 51st Congressional District, heavily Democratic territory that seems anything but a good fit for the conservative mayor.
Bailey’s name has been bandied about as a potential challenger to Democratic county Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer in what would be similarly difficult terrain for the mayor outside his home city. For his part, Bailey not only hasn’t publicly talked about entering the race, he recently even suggested he may step away from politics.
Faulconer’s potential re-entry to electoral politics is more complex and intriguing — and at least somewhat more plausible.
For months, he has been working on a San Diego city initiative for the 2024 ballot to address homelessness. He and his circle of supporters and friends have been discussing the possibility of him riding that into a race against his successor, Democratic Mayor Todd Gloria.
It’s doubtful that Faulconer would have the kind of support he did in his two mayoral elections. He wouldn’t likely dislodge the powerful labor-Democratic coalition from Gloria’s camp, though his odds might seem slightly better to steal back the support of the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce from the incumbent.
The initiative is still being finessed in private, but it rests on a familiar concept: a requirement to provide housing and shelter for homeless people and an enforcement mechanism to make those living on the street use it, or face consequences. Just yesterday, Gloria announced he’s working on his own 2024 ballot measure regarding homelessness.
Gloria may be vulnerable in part because of the homelessness crisis, an uptick in crime and continued police staffing shortages — along with increasing criticism from the San Diego Police Officers Association. Further, his selection of a bigspending political supporter to redevelop the cityowned sports arena and other Midway District properties has introduced a whiff of scandal.
But Faulconer’s record has plenty for opponents to exploit. Faulconer and
other regional leaders were criticized for neglecting clear warnings that illegal homeless encampments were causing sanitation problems that contributed to the deadly outbreak of hepatitis A in 2016-18. Twenty people died and hundreds were sickened from the disease.
The annual point-intime count of homeless people throughout the county showed some declines under Faulconer, but a change in methodology raised questions — as did some timely clearing out of homeless encampments.
As for police staffing, that was an acute problem during Faulconer’s administration as well.
Then there’s his move to
have the city obtain the office building at 101 Ash St., a plan also supported by Gloria that turned into a scandalous
boondoggle.
Faulconer’s decision to run as a replacement candidate in the 2021 special recall election targeting Gov. Gavin Newsom could come back to haunt him.
He backed off his staunch pro-housing stance when he said as governor he would veto bills that would undermine single-family zoning. As mayor, he enthusiastically backed efforts to allow more than one unit on single-family lots.
Having long built an image as a moderate Republican, Faulconer took a
conservative turn. In a debate among replacement candidates, Faulconer maintained that critical race theory “leads to cancel culture,” according to The Sacto Politico. That may appeal to conservatives, but probably not to the Democrats and Democraticleaning independents he’d need to attract in a mayoral race.
Faulconer finished a distant third in the replacement race with 8 percent of the statewide vote and 15 percent in San Diego County.
Wells’ decision to take on Jacobs only makes sense if viewed as a move to position himself for another office down the line. He was reelected to a four-year term in November, which means he would continue on as mayor if he loses next year.
Democrats have a 20
percent voter registration advantage in the 51st District, which includes San Diego suburbs north of Interstate 8 and reaches east and south to more conservative El Cajon and Spring Valley.
Jacobs was elected in 2020 and re-elected last year by overwhelming margins. She’s a prolific fundraiser and has plenty of family money to rely on (her grandfather is Irwin Jacobs, co-founder of Qualcomm).
She was endorsed both times by the San Diego Regional East County Chamber of Commerce, which isn’t likely to take a flyer on Wells and abandon a sure-thing incumbent.
As if that’s not enough, 2024 is a presidential election year, which tends to boost Democratic turnout.
This is not a race the National Republican Congressional Committee will invest in.
Bailey, whose second term as mayor ends next year, has been all over conservative-leaning media outlets lately talking about homelessness and the need to provide shelter and services, along with strict enforcement of anti-camping laws. He has held up Coronado as a success, though the small, wealthy city has never had much of a problem with homelessness.
That led to increased speculation that he might run against Lawson-Remer, who was first elected in 2020 to the largely North County district that has since lost inland areas and stretched south through reapportionment.
It’s a largely Democratic district, and Lawson-Remer has stressed to potential donors the importance of retaining her seat, which would preserve the 3-2 Democratic majority on the Board of Supervisors. In 2020, Lawson-Remer ousted Republican incumbent Kristen Gaspar by more than 16 percentage points.
Asked if he was considering running for supervisor or some other office, Bailey replied via text message: “I’ve certainly heard that talk myself, but have other plans that do not include politics.”
Asked later if that means he’s ruling out running for office, Bailey did not reply.