UKRAINE MAY BE EYEING NEW FRONT IN WAR
Ukrainian forces have stepped up assaults across the Dnieper River near the southern city of Kherson, carrying out raids into Russian-controlled territory on the eastern bank. The increased activity has prompted speculation among analysts and in Russian military circles that Ukraine might be planning a more ambitious effort to open a new front in the war.
In recent days, Western military analysts have cited geolocated video footage that shows Ukrainian forces operating in a number of locations deeper behind enemy lines than previously witnessed.
“Ukrainian actions appear to be larger than previously observed tactical raids,” analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research institute, said Thursday.
The Ukrainian military has remained largely silent on the amphibious operations into Russian-held territory near Kherson, and the extent of its ambitions with the river crossings are unknown. In the past, Ukrainian attacks across the river have been limited in scope and duration, with multiple goals, including reconnaissance, sabotage and attacks aimed at undermining Russian defenses and logistical operations.
But President Vladimir Putin of Russia, speaking to reporters during his trip to Beijing this week, indicated that the Kremlin believes the new assaults are more ambitious, claiming that they were part of the “next counteroffensive.”
If Ukraine can manage to establish a secure position across the Dnieper, it would put Russian targets in Crimea at greater risk, allow Ukrainians to further compromise Russian logistics, and create a new front in an area where Russian fortifications are less comprehensive and minefields are believed to be less dense.
The potential promise of any such effort is matched by the peril it holds. Over centuries of warfare, rivers have proved to be among the most challenging natural barriers for an attacking army. But crossings by boat are the only option for Ukraine; the major bridges linking Kherson city to the eastern bank were destroyed by bombing.
The cross-river activity comes as Ukraine hopes to take advantage of newly supplied long-range missiles provided by the United States to target Russian air bases, ammunition depots and command centers in southern Ukraine, long out of reach of most Ukrainian weapons.