TRUMP INCREASES ADVANTAGE IN IOWA, POLL SHOWS
Support for Haley, DeSantis has stayed flat since October
With five weeks to go until the first Republican presidential nominating contest, a new poll shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley have yet to chip away at former President Donald Trump’s commanding — and growing — lead in Iowa.
The latest NBC NewsDes Moines Register-Mediacom Iowa poll shows Trump now attracting first-choice support from 51 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, up from 43 percent in October. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled Jan. 15 for Republicans.
DeSantis and Haley trail behind Trump at 19 percent and 16 percent, respectively — numbers that have not changed significantly since October, when both were tied at 16 percent.
In the new poll, conducted Dec. 2-7, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy attracted 5 percent, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie garnered 4 percent and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson got 1 percent.
While the Iowa contests have a history of shifts late in the race, Trump’s lead is the largest ever recorded so close to a competitive caucus in the poll’s history.
The December poll showed that first-choice support for Trump was driven by certain demographics and persistent loyalty to the former president.
He attained first-choice support from majorities of evangelical Christians (51 percent), self-identified Republicans (59 percent), firsttime caucus-goers (63 percent) and White men without college degrees (66 percent). The former president’s first-choice support was weakest among individuals with college degrees (39 percent), independents (36 percent) and suburban residents (36 percent). Some 70 percent of Trump supporters polled also say their minds are made up.
Trump’s dominating lead in Iowa comes as the Republican presidential field has winnowed, with some of the remaining campaigns surging resources to Iowa in an effort to emerge as the most viable alternative to the former president.
While the poll was being conducted, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum dropped out of the race. The fourth GOP presidential debate also took place in Alabama, without Trump.
A majority of likely caucus-goers, 54 percent, said in October that they could be persuaded to change their first-choice candidate, but in the latest December survey, 46 percent now say they could still be persuaded to change their pick. Fortynine
percent say their minds are already made up.
While Trump maintains a first-choice lead, the poll finds that 30 percent see DeSantis as a second choice, and 17 percent see Haley as their second choice.
Trump’s lead in Iowa has persisted even as he has declined to show up to some events presidential candidates traditionally frequent, defied a number of other Iowa campaign traditions and criticized the state’s Republican governor. He also faces numerous legal challenges, including 91 felony charges across four criminal cases over election interference, mishandling of classified documents and falsifying business records. He has continued to deny any wrongdoing in each case.
Seventy-three percent of likely caucus-goers, compared with 65 percent polled in October, say they believe Trump can win a general election against President Joe Biden despite the former president’s legal challenges. The number of likely Republican caucus-goers who think Trump’s legal challenges make it nearly impossible for Trump to beat Biden also shrank — down from 32 percent in October to 24 percent in this latest poll.
The poll of 502 likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.