Analytics behind Campbell’s calls trending in NFL, adding drama
Whether you believe Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell was wrong or right to go for it Sunday on a pair of fourth downs against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship game, when it comes to such decisions and the underlying analytics models that influence them, it’s no easy task to counter two related assertions.
One, on balance, the sport of football is more interesting when offenses go for it on fourth down.
Two, thanks largely to probability models, football coaches have gone for it far more often than they did decades ago.
Math folks employed by NFL teams don’t care about entertainment value. They’re seeking a competitive edge. News flash: they’ve already won a major victory there. Fourth-down situations
that not that long ago would’ve resulted in a punt, no questions asked, now spur “go for it” attempts throughout the NFL.
Does that mean probability models in fact unearthed useful insights, on balance? Seems like a pretty fair conclusion.
Back to the point about analytics conferring an entertainment windfall on football.
Does the same hold true in baseball?
It’s not a very fair question because I’m overly reducing what analytics may entail, but a case for the “nays” comes from a bright former Padres media relations staffer who used to hand out team press releases and stats packages in the press box.
Theo Epstein, who hired Bill James for the Boston Red Sox and advised me three decades ago to read an analytics site called BaseballProspectus.com, isn’t thrilled with all of the changes he and analytics experts have wrought on the former American pastime.
“It is the greatest game in the world,” Epstein told NPR in 2020. “But there are some threats to it because of the way the game is evolving. And I take some respon
sibility for that because the executives like me, who have spent a lot of time using analytics and other measures, have unwittingly had a negative impact on the aesthetic value of the game and the entertainment value of the game.”
Epstein, who built World Series winners that ended the lengthy title droughts of the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs, was referring to the aesthetic fallout from the statistically driven discoveries that outs are more precious than commonly understood, as are home runs and walks. Striking out, conversely, has been discovered to be less harmful to offenses than many baseball teams believed.
The thousands of games of Home Run Derby that have ensued — whether or not a game produced a barrage of home runs — resulted in the ball being put into play less often, strikeout totals soaring and tactics such as the hit-andrun, stolen base and bunt diminishing. Singles have lost their charm. Analytics did to the pitcher's complete game what the asteroid did to the dinosaur.
Epstein, since stepping down as the Cubs' president, has worked to bring more action and athleticism back into baseball. He was among the advisers to Commissioner Rob Manfred who championed Major League Baseball's rule changes implemented last year. Such as the pitch timer, the curtailment of radical defensive shifts and the introduction of larger bases, coupled with limitations on how many times a pitcher could attempt a pickoff.
Baseball was a better game for it.
As for the football on display Sunday with a pair of Super Bowl berths on the line, it featured a diversity of playmaking and abundance of tactical and strategic
considerations that no other sport can match. With 22 players involved in every play and some 130 plays in a game, there's plenty of gold for analytics wizards to mine, to say nothing of their efforts in the realms of draft analysis and sports science.
(Which is why coach Jim Harbaugh, coming off a 15-0 season that produced Michigan's first unanimous national title since 1948, insisted the Spanoses step up the Chargers' analytics game as a condition of taking the job.)
Thankfully, for now, at least, it appears football is less vulnerable than baseball to analytics stultifying the sport, aesthetically speaking.
Mahomes stands alone
Barring a major setback between now and the afternoon of Feb. 11, Patrick Mahomes will start his fourth Super Bowl by age 28.
How many other QBs started four Super Bowls before their 30th birthday? Zero.
The San Diego connection to Mahomes?
It's seismic. Entering the final NFL Draft the Chargers staged in San Diego, Bolts coach Anthony Lynn recommended Mahomes only for the brain trust of Tom Telesco and John Spanos to double down on at least two more years of Philip Rivers.
The Chargers' selection of Clemson receiver Mike Williams seventh overall induced exhales in the Chiefs' draft room, per John Dorsey, Kansas City's general manager at the time.
Dorsey told The Athletic's Bob McGinn the Chiefs feared the Chargers would select Mahomes because, like the Chiefs, who had San Diego's Alex Smith under contract for two more years, the Chargers could stash the exciting but somewhat raw Mahomes behind Rivers for at least a year.
Rivers or not, there was no way Telesco and Spanos would've passed on Mahomes if they shared the strong belief of Chiefs leaders headed by Andy Reid, Brett Veach and Matt Nagy that Mahomes possessed immense talent that Reid said recalled Packers Hall of Famer Brett Favre.
What happened to Williams? His back seized up after he lunged for a pass in his first Chargers practice. He walked stiffly off the field and didn't return to practice until that summer in Orange County. The injury, which may have aggravated a previous issue, led to a lost rookie season.
Sounding off
Ex-Bolts LB Drue Tranquill made a crucial overlooked play Sunday, running down and tackling
after the Ravens' QB caught his own pass. The quick reaction may have prevented a touchdown. Tranquill, who delivered a strong game as
Willie Gay's stand-in, has provided the Chiefs good value on a one-year, $3 million contract.
A fundamental breakdown by Ravens receiver
Zay Flowers led to the fumble that cost his team a touchdown. Flowers could've scored without reaching the ball toward the goal line. When he began to extend his arms, longarmed cornerback L’Jarius Sneed poked the ball loose with a sensational highspeed effort, enabling cornerback Trent McDuffie's recovery. After catching Jackson's pass, Flowers didn't put the ball in a secure position. That's contrary to what receivers are taught. For Flowers, who had a bright rookie season and scored Baltimore's only TD, it was a memorable teaching moment.
Look for the Lions' offense to support analytics findings that it's more likely for an NFL offense than an NFL defense to maintain a high standard across several seasons. In support of QB Jared Goff, 29, are young standouts in tackle
Penei Sewell, 23; receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown, 24; running back Jahmyr Gibbs, 21; tight end Sam LaPorta, 23; and high-speed receiver Jameson Williams, 22, who has made a full recovery from reconstructive knee surgery.
Less talk from NFL broadcasters about “momentum” would be appreciated. They'd better serve their audience by digging into aptitude, if they can.
The Super Bowl health edge, for now, goes to the 49ers. Recent injuries will deprive the Chiefs of All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, defensive lineman Charles
and running back