Election year defined by immigration vs. abortion
El Cajon Mayor Bill Wells rarely passes up the opportunity to talk about problems at the border — on television shows, social media posts and in his own congressional campaign videos.
Mostly, he chastises President Joe Biden for policies that are not stemming the tide of cross-border migration.
Recently, he took on his opponent, Democratic Rep. Sara Jacobs, for not supporting a Republican House resolution condemning Biden’s border and immigration policies.
While highlighting the unruly border situation, the measure seemed designed to ensure most Democrats would vote against it or not vote at all. Only 14 House Democrats voted for the measure. Jacobs did not.
“My opponent @SaraJacobsCA had an opportunity to address this issue, but she refused,” he said on X (formerly Twitter). In a video he added, “She really has no interest in solving this problem.”
That isn’t true, though Wells and Jacobs differ on what they think should happen at the border and on immigration.
Wells zeros in on enforcement at the border and criticizes California for providing free health care to low-income immigrants living here illegally.
Jacobs has called for more asylum judges and case officers to address the asylum backlog and more legal options for migrants to stay in the country, and she supports Biden’s funding request that includes more Customs and Border Protection officers and improved technology to enhance border inspections, particularly for fentanyl detection.
Jacobs for the most part ignores Wells. Instead, the two-term incumbent focuses more on protecting access to abortion, which Wells opposes, and other reproductive rights in legislation, interviews and social media posts.
“Today, we should be celebrating the 51st anniversary of Roe v. Wade,” Jacobs wrote on X on Jan. 22. “Instead, we’re still fighting for dignity and bodily autonomy. I’m furious — but I’m also hopeful. If MAGA Republicans want to make this election cycle about abortion, I dare them to do it.”
Actually, it’s Democrats who want to make the election about abortion.
That dichotomy is a microcosm of what is happening politically across the country. Republicans believe the chaotic situation at the border and increasing public concern about it will help them in November. Democrats again are leaning into voter support for keeping abortion legal that proved a potent issue in 2022.
The two parties view their respective issues as key to success in swing districts and control of Congress. That’s where the Jacobs-Wells dynamic parts ways with the national focus. The heavily Democratic 51st Congressional District, which stretches from south of Poway through central San Diego and east to El Cajon, is widely viewed as a safe haven for Jacobs.
To be sure, there’s a lot more to the election than immigration and abortion. The economy remains a top voter concern. There’s the pro and con about former President Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House and what that means for democracy. Crime, drugs
and homelessness also have become perennial issues.
But Republicans and Democrats are ramping up the pressure on immigration and abortion rights, as underscored by recent actions.
Following the border resolution, House Republicans this week unveiled articles of impeachment that accuse Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas of “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law” for failing to manage the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border.
Democrats are on the defensive on immigration and have moved toward a more Republican posture on tougher border enforcement and limiting asylum claims.
Some polls have immigration and the border ranking up near the economy as the top issue for voters. An ABC/Washington Post poll showed Biden’s approval rating on handing the border situation at just 18 percent.
It’s not clear how much the public view on Biden and the border will be a drag on other Democrats. But a December poll by YouGov commissioned by the Democratic Blueprint group gives more detail about where the public is coming from on immigration — and it’s not good news for Democrats.
Voters prefer an approach that would “increase border enforcement and make asylum and refugee policies stricter” (61 percent) to one that would “increase legal pathways to immigrate to the United States” (39 percent), political scientist Ruy Teixiera wrote in a column for the American Enterprise Institute.
Several Democratic mayors and, increasingly, Democratic members of Congress have been clamoring for stricter border and immigration policies backed by Republicans. That’s where bipartisan negotiations on a Senate bill are heading, but even if that comes together, House Republican leaders say they’ll kill it — which would keep the issue atop voters’ minds through November.
Trump has made clear he wants Republicans to block any such plan. “Please blame it on me,” he said, if the proposal fails.
Democrats blame the Trump-loaded Supreme Court for jeopardizing reproductive rights in 2022 by overturning the constitutional protection for abortion under Roe v. Wade.
On the anniversary of the original Roe decision last week, Vice President Kamala Harris launched a “Reproductive Freedom Tour” across the country. The Biden re-election campaign has made clear abortion rights will be a major focus of the election.
Ballot measures protecting abortion rights have succeeded in red and blue states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe.
There’s a push to place similar measures on the 2024 ballot in at least nine states, including the battlegrounds of Arizona, Colorado, Florida and Nevada. The proposal in Florida qualified for the ballot, but its fate is uncertain pending a court review.
Politico suggested that the broader impact of such ballot measures may be limited. An analysis by the news organization concluded that the margins of victory of the earlier ballot measures largely were provided by Republican voters who also voted for GOP candidates.
But different data can suggest different things. Some states experienced an increase in women registering to vote and a surge in turnout of young voters in 2022, when Democrats surpassed expectations.
Support for access to abortion was near a record, according to an October poll by The Wall Street Journal and the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. About 55 percent of respondents said a pregnant woman should be able to get an abortion for any reason. That was down two points from a May 2022 poll.
Republicans in swing districts and states often are reluctant to talk about abortion or bills introduced in Congress that would enact a national ban on the procedure.
In the end, it’s doubtful that border security or abortion will be the silver bullet to determine the 2024 elections. But they can provide clear distinctions among candidates — which, depending on the district, could be a big advantage for one side or the other.