Larcenies fall, but auto thefts rise in Bay Area

The coronavirus pandemic upended crime trends across California. Most cities have seen homicides rise, assaults and rapes decline, and overall property crime rates go down. But even in a highly unusual era for crime, the Bay Area stands out when it comes to two types of property crime: larcenies and auto thefts.

In a study published in June, researchers at the California Policy Lab looked at data for the 70 California cities with at least 100,000 people that reported their 2019 and 2020 crime figures to the FBI. The researchers found that most of the 70 cities saw decreased larceny theft, which the FBI defines as “the unlawful taking, carrying, leading, or riding away of property from the possession or constructive possession of another.” For example, shoplifting and pickpocketing are designated as larceny.

Seven of the 10 California cities that saw the biggest decreases in larceny were in the Bay Area. On the other hand, most cities saw an in

Big swings in Bay Area theft data

Top 10 declines in larceny thefts per 100,000 in California cities from 2019 to 2020

1. San Francisco

Top 10 increases in motor vehicle thefts per 100,000 in California cities from 2019 to 2020

10. San Francisco

crease in car thefts over the same time period — and six of the 10 cities with the largest increases were also in the Bay.

San Francisco saw the greatest dip in larceny theft rates of any city statewide. Reported larcenies declined by more than 1,650 thefts per 100,000 residents from 2019 to 2020, according to the FBI data.

According to Seth Meisels, managing attorney for the San Francisco District Attorney’s Office intake unit, the decline in larceny was largely because the city had so many fewer people out and about.

“It’s a destination. A tourist destination, a shopping destination and a commuter destination,” Meisels told The Chronicle. “There’s people that come into the city and they have money and often come in with the intent to spend it. Of course, this whole dynamic change(d) last year.”

With far fewer tourists and commuters, opportunities for inperson theft in San Francisco plummeted. But it wasn’t just San Francisco — other Bay Area cities were impacted too, possibly because many of the region’s cities had relatively strict stayathome orders last year.

“What makes the Bay Area such an outlier was the intensity of the shutdown here, even within California, in terms of how much people stayed home,” said Mikaela Rabinowitz, director of data, research and analytics for the San Francisco District Attorney’s Office.

Much of the Bay Area’s decrease in larceny thefts came from a decline in car breakins, Magnus Lofstrom, senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, told The Chronicle. That’s mostly because car breakins were so high in the Bay to begin with, thanks to its high number of tourists and the city’s high level of economic inequality (studies have shown inequality is correlated with higher property crime rates).

“When you’re traveling ... people leave stuff in their cars if they’re seeing the various sights. But also as a worker you forget stuff when you’re going between places,” Lofstrom said. “And now when people aren’t in their cars as much, we’re sheltering in place, that means that there are less opportunities to leave things in your car.”

With such a dramatic decrease in targets for larceny thefts, people who steal to support themselves likely had to look elsewhere, Meisels said. So they found opportunities that didn’t involve human targets — hence the large increase in car thefts.

Threequarters of large California cities saw increased car thefts last year, according to the FBI data. The spike was largest in Hayward, where reported vehicle thefts shot up by nearly 400 per 100,000 residents. Oakland was a close second — vehicle thefts increased by roughly 380 per 100,000.

Another factor behind the cartheft surge could be the booming market for used cars, Lofstrom said. Used car values soared last year and remain elevated, thanks to an ongoing shortage of new vehicles and increased demand.

“That makes cars more attractive for car thieves,” Lofstrom said, particularly in an expensive region like the Bay Area.

Despite the cartheft increase, overall levels of property crime declined in cities across the state last year, as did overall violent crime rates, according to the California Policy Lab research.

Scott Strazzante / The Chronicle Juan Montanez, visiting from Texas, arrives at his rental car to find it had been broken into near Fisherman’s Wharf in June.