San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Population in Bay Area, state continues to decline
San Francisco, and the entire Bay Area, lost population during the second year of the pandemic, and California’s population continued to fall for the third year in a row, according to state estimates released Thursday.
San Francisco saw a drop of about 4,400 people, or 0.5% of its population, between July 2021 and July 2022, a smaller decline than the 3.7% population loss in the prior year.
The city’s population was an estimated 834,046 people as of July 2022, down from a pre-pandemic high of 889,783 people in January 2020. It was the lowest level since July 2012 as out-migration wiped out seven years of sustained growth fueled by a tech boom.
The dearth of people has been particularly evident in downtown San Francisco for the past three years, with empty offices and BART and Muni trains, and shuttered restaurants and shops. The fiscal implications are dire, as the city projects a $728 million deficit over the next two years. By some measures, downtown San Francisco has had the weakest pandemic recovery in all of North America.
California’s population declined 0.54% to 39 million people, a loss of over 210,000 people. A sharp decrease in migration to California and roughly 100,000 total coronavirus pandemic deaths led to statewide population drops for the first time in a century, starting in 2020.
The nine-county Bay Area saw some of the steepest population declines in the state — ranging from Napa’s loss of about 1,800 people to Santa Clara’s loss of over 16,500 people, second only to Los Angeles County’s 113,000person plunge in the state.
San Francisco’s, and the Bay Area’s, losses were driven by a net domestic migration, as many residents left the region and state for cheaper housing options.
San Francisco lost about 8,700 people to net domestic migration; San Mateo lost 12,700 people; Contra Costa County lost 16,400 people; and Alameda lost 27,300. Santa Clara County, the Bay Area’s most populous county, lost 30,900 people to net domestic migration, again, the second-most in the state behind only Los Angeles County. Santa Clara County’s losses were slightly larger compared to Orange County, a region with 1.2 million more people.
That trend reflected many companies allowing workers to stay remote, along with concerns over affordability, said Walter Schwarm, chief demographer at the California Department of Finance, which released the report.
Schwarm expects California population growth to turn positive in the next few years, as immigration rises and the wave of people leaving slows from pandemic-level peaks, but he is doubtful it will return to the more than 1% growth rates seen in the last century.
“The era of large growth for California is probably over,” Schwarm said.
Widespread tech layoffs, which have affected hundreds of thousands of people globally, could dampen population growth, though the number of California layoffs remains unclear.
“A major driver of California’s economy isn’t hiring as aggressively as it was,” Schwarm said. That could lead to weaker in-migration as fewer people come to the state for new jobs.
Birth numbers in both California and the U.S. have also declined as many young adults are delaying marriage and children to pursue higher education, he said. The cost of housing, education and child care, which is acutely expensive in the Bay Area, is also a major hurdle.
A decade ago, California was seeing over half a million children born annually. For the July 2021 to 2022 period, the number of births was only 423,768.
On top of COVID deaths, the state’s Baby Boomer-heavy population is also aging, leading to a higher mortality rate, Schwarm said.
On a percentage basis, San Francisco had the smallest population drop among Bay Area counties, while Marin saw the largest at 1.5%.
Yolo County saw the highest percentage and absolute increase in population statewide at 3.2%, or almost 6,900 people, which Schwarm attributed to UC Davis students returning to live on campus. Santa Barbara, Santa Cruz and San Luis Obispo counties also saw population gains attributed to students returning, he said.
Lassen County saw the biggest percentage drop statewide at 4.8%, or nearly 1,500 people, due to the closure of the state prison in Susanville. Plumas County saw a 2.4% population drop and Tuolumne County saw a 1.9% drop due to wildfires, Schwarm said.
Federal census data, which uses a different methodology compared to the state, said San Francisco’s population fell at an even greater rate, 6.3%, between July 2020 and 2021, the most of any U.S. city. Data for the following year will be released in a few months.
Schwarm said the disparity is due to state data collection that includes students and other people returning, while federal data has a lag.
He said it was highly unlikely that California or the Bay Area would see continued massive out-migration, now that the pandemic is under control and many people have settled on new homes following remote work changes.
“These trends were largely a one-time bullet from the pandemic,” Schwarm said. “Barring some massive tech collapse, we should climb ourselves back to positive territory.”