San Francisco Chronicle - (Sunday)
Washington an ideal foe for get-right game
Did Monday’s loss to the Ravens shake your belief these 49ers can win a Super Bowl? Was that loss an aberration or just a bad matchup for them?
Ann Killion: I don’t think the loss was an aberration. The 49ers’ fourth loss of the season was 1) yes, a bad matchup, 2) similar to the previous three in that the 49ers looked nothing like the dominant half of their split personality, and 3) further proof that the 49ers are unstoppable only when they get a big lead. The good news for them is that they have the offensive firepower to build those big leads, but they — and coach Kyle Shanahan — have yet to prove the 49ers can come from behind. The 49ers can definitely win a Super Bowl, but the loss to the Ravens provided a lot of film on how to rattle the NFC powerhouse.
Eric Branch: Their first loss since Oct. 29 was a reminder that the NFL isn’t composed of the mighty 49ers and 31 other teams. As they did during their 5-0 start, the 49ers looked invincible during their six-game winning streak. But their aura of infallibility is gone after five turnovers, 102 penalty yards and a 21-point fourth-quarter deficit at Levi’s Stadium against an AFC power that can match their physicality. Does that portend a similar outcome in a potential Super Bowl rematch? The 49ers don’t think so. Several players have noted they were just a yard from making it a one-score game with about two minutes left, despite losing the turnover battle 5-0. (Note: The Ravens had plenty to do with that disparity.)
Michael Silver: The 49ers can absolutely win a Super Bowl, but the notion that (if reasonably healthy) they’d cruise to a sixth championship was completely obliterated on Christmas night. The Ravens and coach John Harbaugh came into Levi’s with a plan: get up on the 49ers and make them play from behind. It took a while, but once the Ravens made that happen, this wasn’t much of a contest, the late rally and yardage stats notwithstanding. The Ravens moved the ball when they needed to; when the 49ers had the ball, Baltimore took it away. The 49ers are capable of beating any team, including the Ravens in a rematch, but they’re going to have to grind their way to the top. Oh, and by the way: The injuries are becoming an issue.
Brock Purdy, was he exposed by the Ravens or are you still a believer?
Killion: Purdy had the game that we have all been expecting him to have ever since he assumed the starting role. At some point, every quarterback has a game like that. But having it come in a potential Super Bowl preview game in late December was less than ideal and gave fuel to the Purdy skeptics. Still, it might have been a needed splash of cold water for the young QB. After the game he spoke of learning how to deal with adversity, which is one lesson he hasn’t really had to absorb yet in his NFL playoff career. Good to have it before the playoffs begin. And also probably good to quiet all that MVP chatter that he was hearing.
Branch: Purdy’s four-interception disaster didn’t expose a fatal flaw, which I don’t think exists. But it was more evidence of how an upper-tier defense with a disruptive pass rush can mess with the rhythm and timing of an offense that Purdy has mostly operated at an NFL MVP level. Purdy’s so-so numbers
against the more potent defenses he has faced have something of a no-duh quality: He’s not as good against better competition! Still, the disparity is stark. Purdy has been superhuman in 11 games against lesser units (128.0 quarterback rating), but against the five teams the 49ers have faced that are ranked inside the league’s top 20 in total defense he’s been an average Joe (80.3).
Silver: Purdy’s legit — a “dude,” in Shanahan parlance — and this won’t change that. In all likelihood, he’ll bounce back from a rough Christmas by playing well enough to provoke a festive New Year’s Eve on the long flight home. He doesn’t get too excited when he thrives and won’t get too fazed by a bad game. The bigger issue is the offensive line charged with protecting him. Trent Williams’ calf injury is concerning; the 49ers need him right for the playoffs. Other linemen are banged up, and right tackle Colton McKivitz is struggling in pass protection. Fortunately, Purdy has good pocket mobility and the ability to create on the fly. He may have to on Sunday.
After witnessing last week’s stack of injuries on the offensive line — to Williams, Aaron Banks and Jaylon Moore — what’s your level of concern there, against the Commanders and looking ahead?
Killion: Personally, I have other more cosmic concerns that will keep me up at night as we head into 2024. But for the 49ers? Any time Trent Williams is injured their level of concern should skyrocket. He’s the most important player on the team; with apologies to Purdy and Christian McCaffrey, Williams is the 49ers’ real MVP. Overall, the 49ers have done a great job with an offensive line that has been considered their weakest link. But you would want that unit to be hitting its stride heading into the playoffs, not patching things together.
Branch: The 49ers are 2-0 without Banks in the starting lineup. And they are 0-2 without Williams. Those are small sample sizes, but they reflect this reality: The 49ers could get by without Banks, or Jake Brendel, or Colton McKivitz, or Jon Feliciano … but their title hopes could evaporate without Williams, who is arguably their most irreplaceable player. The groin injury Williams suffered against the Ravens appears to be minor. But any injury to the 35-year-old All-Pro, whose medical file included an extensive history of ankle issues, is cause for concern.
Silver: I addressed this in the previous question, but I’ll add this: As much as Williams would love to rub his enduring excellence in the face of a franchise for whom he once played — and where his tenure ended horribly, amid accusations that team doctors mishandled his cancer diagnosis — he and the 49ers should err on the side of caution in this one. Without a healthy Williams in the postseason, San Francisco would have a very hard time winning three (or four) games.
Do the 49ers suffer a setback against the Commanders, or will they retain their control of home-field advantage in the NFC with a win?
Killion: Even with Daniel Snyder out as owner of the Commanders, it’s likely that Shanahan still sees red when he’s at FedEx Field. He’ll be motivated to beat up on his old employer. Chase Young will probably feel the same way. The 49ers were humiliated last week and will be ready to return the favor to a lowly opponent. 49ers 42, Commanders 12.
Branch: The 49ers are making a cross-country trip on a short week and are facing a dangerous team fully capable of pulling an ups— … just kidding! The 4-11 Commanders are truly terrible and will be facing an angry juggernaut. Washington’s 32nd-ranked defense will put Brock Purdy right back in the exhausting, ever-changing NFL MVP conversation. 49ers 38, Commanders 14.
Silver: Earlier this week Niners defensive end Chase Young said of his former squad, “They’re definitely a team who’s going to fight to the end. I do know that.” Does he? Young, who wasn’t exactly known for giving maximum effort during his four-plus years with the Commanders, may not be reading the situation right. Though it’s not technically Washington’s final game, this is the type of playing-out-the-string contest during which — in NFL lingo — the car engines in the player lot will be running at halftime. Vroom: 49ers 31, Commanders 13.