Democrats pour funds into key race

Tim Sbranti, Catherine Baker contest may tip supermajority in Legislature

In October alone, Democrats and their allies have funneled more than $1 million into an East Bay Assembly district that’s key to the party’s hopes of a two-thirds majority in the Legislature.

Democrat Tim Sbranti, a high school teacher and Dublin mayor, and Republican Catharine Baker, an attorney from Dublin, are looking to replace termed-out Democrat Joan Buchanan in the district, which stretches south from Walnut Creek and Lafayette to Pleasanton and Livermore.

“It’s going to be a turnout election,” said Steve Maviglio, a political consultant working for the Assembly Democrats. “We’ve known for two years that we have candidates in some close districts that we were going to have to help.”

Democrats now hold 55 seats in the Assembly, one more than they need to hang on to the two-thirds majority that allows them to pass legislation without any Republican support. Losing that East Bay seat, however, would leave the supermajority on a knife’s edge.

Sbranti is likely to need a strong party turnout in a district that might not be as Democratic as it looks. While Democrats hold a 39 percent to 32 percent registration edge over Republicans, and Democratic candidates split 64 percent of the vote in the June primary, the district’s affluent suburbs are the most conservative part of the East Bay

and were the last GOP stronghold in the Bay Area.

“Joan Buchanan was the first Democrat to represent this area in decades” when she was elected in 2008, Baker said in a telephone interview from her San Ramon campaign office. “We elect a lot of centrist Republicans at the local level, and this is generally a center-right district that cares a lot about fiscal responsibility.”

It’s also a district with plenty of commuters, and Baker is hoping her promise to work to block BART strikes like the ones that shut down the rail system twice in 2013 will strike a chord with voters.

Rerun time

For Sbranti, it’s like fighting the primary all over again. Democrat Steve Glazer, an Orinda city councilman, and his supporters spent more than $2 million in that campaign, much of it to slam Sbranti, a former official with the California Teachers Association, for supporting BART unions’ right to strike.

Although Glazer hasn’t officially endorsed Baker, they have posed together in pictures on her campaign website, and he has made it clear he hasn’t made up with Sbranti or the unions that backed him.

Glazer collected 22 percent of the primary vote, but Sbranti’s team

“It’s going to be a turnout election. We’ve known for two years that we have candidates in some close districts that we were going to have to help.” Steve Maviglio, political consultant working for the Assembly Democrats

isn’t worried those voters will defect to Baker.

“I’ve been doing this a long time, and I’ve never seen votes transfer” to another party’s candidate, said Gale Kaufman, the political consultant for Sbranti’s campaign.

‘Safe’ for Democrats

Kaufman also downplayed the surge of Democratic spending in the race, arguing it was nothing unusual in a district where more than $5 million was spent in the primary.

“By the numbers, this is a relatively safe Democratic district,” she said.

“Tim Sbranti is a classroom teacher and local mayor with deep roots in the area,” Kauf- man added, calling him the kind of candidate “people in the district elect.”

But other Democrats and their supporters don’t view the race as a walkover. The state Democratic Party alone has given more than $200,000 to Sbranti since Oct. 1, with party organizations in Sacramento, Marin, Santa Clara and Del Norte counties chipping in another $220,000.

An independent expenditure committee backed largely by the California Teachers Association has already spent another $500,000 this month to back Sbranti, bringing its total contribution to $2.6 mil- lion, most of it in the primary.

Brown’s backing

Even Gov. Jerry Brown, who has been surprisingly parsimonious with his endorsements, has come out in support of Sbranti, saying he “has the combination of experience I like to see in an effective leader.”

Baker isn’t without her own resources. Since Oct. 1, she’s added about $50,000 to the $147,624 she reported in her campaign treasury and has financial support coming in from a variety of outside groups.

JobsPAC support

JobsPAC, a political arm of the California Chamber of Commerce, has spent $42,000 to support Baker and more than $220,000 to oppose Sbranti.

The Spirit of Democracy California, a political action committee largely funded by maverick Republican Charles Munger, has backed Baker with $250,000 in independent expenditures this month, bringing its total contribution to around $440,000. The group also has spent $120,000 to oppose Sbranti.

Tough one for GOP

Although the abortion rights, pro-marriage equality Baker is probably as strong a Republican candidate as possible in the district, she’s got a tough road to victory in November, said Allan Hoffenblum, a former GOP consultant who now publishes the California Target Book, a nonpartisan analysis of state political races.

“It’s a strong Democrat-leaning district ... and it would be at least a mild upset if (Baker) won,” he said. “She can’t let it turn into a partisan race, but must make it focus on issues.”

That won’t be enough, said Maviglio, who expects to keep the seat on the Democrats’ side of the aisle.

“The people in the district know the difference between a Democrat and a Republican,” he said. “And that will play very well for Tim.”