Stakes high for Iran president at key stage in nuclear talks
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Throughout the long negotiations over the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, President Hassan Rouhani has withstood scathing criticism from hard-liners at home by sticking to his case that a deal with his country’s longtime enemies will bring peace and prosperity.
The political stakes are high for the moderate president as talks enter their homestretch toward a June deadline.
If he succeeds in sealing an agreement, Iran could see muchhoped-for relief from withering sanctions that are dragging down the economy at a time when the OPEC producer is trying to ride out a severe slump in oil prices.
An improvement in the economy could translate into a broader boost in domestic support for Rouhani and strengthen the moderate camp gain in parliamentary elections next year. Moderates are pushing for a less confrontational relationship with the West — a break from the eight-year tenure of predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad — and seek more freedoms at home, including greater freedom of expression and easing of social restrictions.
Failure, however, will bolster his hard-line opponents who are against the entire agenda.
“Rouhani was elected on, promoted and supported the idea that he would help the Iranian economy recover. And of course the nuclear agreement is tied to that because of the sanctions,” said Dubai-based political analyst Theodore Karasik. “If there is no nuclear deal, the presidency will go back to a more ultraconservative leader — under a nuclear Iran.”
The U.S. and other world powers reached an interim deal with Iran in November 2013 that involved some sanctions relief in exchange for Tehran freezing its nuclear program. Talks have now been extended until the end of June, though negotiators aim to reach a framework for a deal by the end of next month.
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif sounded a hopeful tone earlier last week, saying a further extension of the talks wouldn’t be in anyone’s interest. President Obama seems to agree, saying Monday that “we’re at a point where they need to make a decision.”
Zarif has borne the brunt of the hard-liners’ most recent criticism, particularly over a walk he took with Secretary of State John Kerry during negotiations in Geneva last month.
Comments by Mohammad Reza Naghdi, the head of the Basij organization, the paramilitary wing of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, were typical of the outrage. He blasted the envoy for “showing intimacy with the enemy of humanity” and “trampling on the blood of martyrs.”
Rouhani’s team can afford to weather the criticism for now. They still have the crucial backing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on all major decisions in the Islamic Republic.
“Without Khamenei’s consent, the negotiating team couldn’t survive more than 10 minutes,” said Tehran-based political analyst Saeed Leilaz.
Khamenei recently reiterated support for the negotiators, telling members of the air force in a speech that they are do- ing their best to “take away the option of sanctions from the enemy.”
He chose his words carefully, though.
“We think that no deal is better than a bad deal that is against our national interests,” he said, adding pointedly that his country is not “desperate” on the nuclear issue.
“He basically wants credit if there is a deal, and doesn’t want to be blamed if it doesn’t work,” said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute.