Obama’s antidote to isolation
In his remaining months, President Obama is trying to breathe life into one of his biggest goals: treaties that broaden trade and harmonize the rules. But his timing couldn’t be worse, as he’s frankly acknowledging on a bumpy tour of isolationist-minded Europe.
His prized plan is a pair of treaties covering Asia and Europe that hold the potential to both widen and regulate global trade, an unstoppable force that needs updated rules. But Congress isn’t sold on the good sense of this idea, nor are the leading presidential candidates of both major parties, who compete daily in denouncing the deals.
As a major exporter, California has a special seat at the table, with goods including Hollywood movies, wine and prescription pills all at issue. Missing a chance for better terms on exports, environmental protections and labor protections will be a loss on both sides of the Pacific.
The problem has an isolationist echo in Europe. In London, Obama walked into a firestorm of criticism for urging British voters to reject a plan to exit the European Union. He made a similar pitch in Germany, where crowds filled the streets to denounce a pending trade treaty similar to the one wrapping in 12 Pacific Rim countries.
With Europe, the problems spill beyond economics. Germany, like other neighboring countries, is worried about immigration, terrorism and slowing business. A more protective outlook that minimizes foreign corporations and toughens border controls has rising appeal.
For Obama, it’s a hard sell to counter this political reality both here and abroad. Adding to the problem is a presidential clock that’s ticking down on his final term. “Time is not on our side,’’ he said, noting both the brewing opposition in Europe and his dwindling days in office that run out Jan. 20.
It may be now or never on trade treaties, he said. The looming June vote in Britain, strongly flavored with anti-immigration feelings and economic worries, will be a major test. But even in export-driven Germany, issues of foreign influence and surging migration are at odds with wider trade rules.
Obama’s answer is both optimistic and forlorn. His team argues for signing the trade deals now, or perhaps in a lame-duck session after the U.S. presidential vote in November, when campaign rhetoric may cool. But in his German visit, he acknowledged the odds. Long-term trade agreements have a distant, academic appeal, while a closed factory gate or wave of layoffs comes with a heavy punch.
In a presidential campaign, “people naturally are going to worry more about what’s lost than what’s gained with respect to trade agreements,’’ he noted.
Obama’s message of wider trade with modernized rules is the right one, a plan that has the potential to raise living standards both here and in the rest of the world. That potential shouldn’t be lost in isolationist-tinged worries.