Powering down
S.F. bucked home-run trend this season, seems content to do so again
Conor Gillaspie got ahold of that 96-mph Jeurys Familia fastball and sent it soaring into a temperate New York night. Once again, the Giants won a postseason game with a decisive home run.
Throughout their championship era, the Giants stunned opponents with the October long ball, which is funny, because power has not been their strong suit, and certainly wasn’t in 2016.
A record 111 major-leaguers hit at least 20 homers. None of them played for the Giants. No team scored a lower percentage of its runs via the homer. The Giants and Braves shared that distinction at 28.5 percent.
As the faithful patiently await news on the acquisition of a closer, many hope the front office will address the Giants’ inability in 2016 to tap into a home run renaissance. Major-leaguers hit 5,610 in 2016, 700 more than the year before and the most since 2000, when they combined for 5,693 during the height of the steroid era.
Giants fans might not like the front-office view that power is not a priority, which dovetails with general manager Bobby Evans’ suggestion that the makeup of the 2017 offense will not look much different from 2016, when the Giants hit fewer homers than every team but the Braves and Marlins.
“You’re going to have to consider options that may improve your club and make adjustments,” Evans said last week. “Again, we’re biased toward keeping our core as intact as we reasonably can.”
Executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean banged a familiar drum when he preached the bigger need to keep the line moving.
“Our strengths are the links in the chain,” Sabean said. “We have to have all the links. It doesn’t have to be artistic with the home run.
“The magic number in the National League is four. It doesn’t make any difference how you score four-plus runs. If you can score four-plus runs, you’re going to have a chance to win 90-plus games.”
The 2016 Giants actually hit that number and then some. Their 4.41 scoring average was their highest since 2012. But that was negated by a pedestrian 28-27 record in one-run games. They won a fair number of blowouts and lost a lot of closer games, thanks partly to the porous bullpen and an almost incomprehensible 0-62 record when trailing after eight innings.
In other words, the Giants got away from their championship formula of tight pitching paired with clutch hits.
At the same time, the Giants allowed more homers, 158, than in any other year since 2004. Seventeen of those were hit in the ninth inning or later. The Giants’ inability to tie games late with one big swing bespeaks a disadvantage of a team that does not slug.
The overarching questions are whether the Giants can boost their home run total in 2017 without a major overhaul of personnel, and whether it really matters.
The Giants appear to be locked into every position except left field. They could change the nature of the offense via trade, but Evans left no doubt that is not his first choice.
Evans said he expects Eduardo Nuñez to be the everyday third baseman and has suggested that Mac Williamson or Jarrett Parker can be the solution in left field. But the Giants often overstate their support for existing players so that they do not tip their hand in the trade and free-agent markets.
It’s hard to imagine Evans hanging up the phone if the agents for Yoenis Céspedes, Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion call, or similarly if the Brewers shoot Evans a text saying, “Let’s talk Ryan Braun.”
Sabean said a full year of Nuñez, better health and another year of experience for younger players could boost not only the home run count, but the offense in general.
Brandon Belt was the only Giant to hit more than 15 homers. He easily would have surpassed 20 had he not played half his games at AT&T Park. Some of the 19 doubles and seven triples he hit there were homers in any other park.
Buster Posey had 14, a career low for a full season. Hunter Pence had 13 in a partial season.
Evans had telling comments on Posey, noting that he started a career-high 122 games
behind the plate. Not only are the Giants shying away from a position change that could boost his offense, they are catching him even more and willing to accept reduced production in return for his handling of the pitching.
“There’s value in having him out there every day even if it does lessen his power numbers,” Evans said. “Whether he makes an adjustment next year to be more power-focused, I think he can do that.”
As to whether it matters, the Giants hit a paltry 103 homers in the 2012 regular season, worst in the majors, and won 94 games. Pablo Sandoval then hit three in Game 1 of the World Series to propel a sweep. There is that postseason paradox again.
In 2016, the Orioles led the majors with 253 homers and won a wild card. But the next two teams in home runs, the Cardinals and Mariners, missed the postseason.
Every playoff team besides the Giants had at least three hitters who reached or surpassed 20 homers, but four of the five teams with the most such players — Baltimore, Washington, Boston and Texas — did not make the final four.
The Giants got to the final eight on the strength of a homer, by Gillaspie. Evans surprisingly did not even commit to tendering the arbitrationeligible third baseman a contract.
With a smile, Evans said, “We’re going to need to see more big hits from him before we make that final decision.”