So let’s talk Oscar bounce
Now that the awards have been handed out, might any of the winners dramatically increase their grosses (the coveted “Oscar bounce”)?
Probably not. The largest awards-season-related increases occur early in films’ runs, which is why there’s more of an apparent “bounce,” on average, following the Golden Globes — they happen sooner. Nominations, therefore, tend to precede higher spikes than do wins.
According to Box Office Mojo’s data, the average post-nomination percentage of business for the 185 best-picture nominees it tracked was 25.9 percent. The average amount of business post-awards was only 8.7 percent. Because, you know, it was later in their runs. One winner that probably really did benefit from the big prize was “The Last Emperor,” which did 42.3 percent of its business after the ceremony.
Most of this year’s nominees have been out for a while, so any gains after these wins will probably be expressed as bumps in the graphs, not giant spikes.
The show that might most enjoy an Oscar bounce wasn’t nominated for a single Academy Award. “Dear Evan Hansen” is a current Broadway musical by “La La Land’s” lyricists, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul. After the Oscar nominations were announced, as Broadway Journal pointed out, it enjoyed its best eight-performance week to that time.
For some perspective, though, that $1.1 million gross placed it quite a ways behind the millionth week of “Hamilton” ($2.5 million).
To see the cast of “Dear Evan Hansen” performing “Only Us” on “Today”: http://bit.ly/ 2mcGlNH