1st-day plays can pay off
Before last year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament, a site called SportsBettingAcumen.com advised its readers to bet underdogs on the first day of action.
“Here is a simple betting strategy that has yielded excellent long-term results. It is also a great way for the casual bettor to have lots of action,” the site suggested.
The strategy: Bet all underdogs playing on the first full day of play.
“Not the first round, just the first day,” the site emphasized. “Over the past 15 years, betting on all of the underdogs (on the first day) of the tourney has yielded about 60 percent winners, well above the threshold needed for profit.”
While there’s never a sure thing in gambling, Day 1 underdogs have a strong track record. Last year was no exception.
On the first day of the 2016 tournament’s first round, 12th-seeded Arkansas-Little Rock topped fifth-seeded Purdue in double overtime, No. 12 seed Yale beat fifthseeded Baylor, No. 11 seed Gonzaga crushed No. 6 seed Seton Hall, and 11th-seeded Wichita State beat No. 6 seed Arizona. (There are four regions each with 16 teams.)
Those four underdogs won outright, but if you’re betting the spread, the underdog doesn’t have to win — it just needs to cover.
Johnny Avello, the top oddsmaker for Wynn Las Vegas, says this year’s tournament is unusually wide open with “20 teams capable of winning” the title.
At the online betting site Bovada.lv this week, the favorite to win the title was Duke at 6-to-1, followed by North Carolina at 7-to-1 — and Kansas, Villanova and Arizona at 8-to-1. Next was Gonzaga at 9-to-1. Kentucky and UCLA were both 10-to-1.
Here’s what makes betting the underdog on opening day, Thursday, March 16, of the NCAA Tournament such a good play, according to Sports Betting Acumen. No pressure: Underdogs, who aren’t expected to vie for the title, are playing loose and relaxed. “Teams playing relaxed (with) nothing to lose are very dangerous, while the favored teams often feel pressure to win.” Fans cheer dogs: Most games are played at neutral sites, so neither team has home-court advantage. In close games, fans tend to support underdogs, which can boost long shots’ chances. Tough to prepare: Teams are typically playing one another for the first time, without much time to scout, so it’s “easy for a small conference team to sneak up on a ranked major conference team.” Overconfidence: Some top teams underestimate low-seeded opponents. “They don’t give proper respect to their foes from the smaller conference. The end result, as we have seen year after year, are narrow victories or outright losses.”