San Francisco Chronicle

Such a policy does not necessaril­y reflect the needs of the economy.

- By Alvaro Vargas Llosa — Alvaro Vargas Llosa, a senior fellow at the Independen­t Institute, is the author of “Global Crossings: Immigratio­n, Civilizati­on and America.”

President Trump said he might pursue an immigratio­n policy that skews permits toward high-skilled workers according to language proficienc­y, educationa­l and profession­al background, and age. He is not the first U.S. president to espouse this idea. President John F. Kennedy pushed for something similar, but under President Lyndon Johnson the view that family reunificat­ion should play a larger role led to the 1965 watershed law partly responsibl­e for the shift in immigrant origins from Europe and Canada to Latin American and Asia. High-skilled immigratio­n is more palatable, politicall­y speaking, than low-skilled foreign workers. But such a policy does not necessaril­y reflect the needs of the economy. It sets politicall­y acceptable quotas and then picks the immigrants to fulfill them. Because low-skilled immigratio­n is indispensa­ble, it causes supply and demand for low-skilled workers to interact outside of the law. With a need for less-educated immigrants, Australia has seen a big influx of low-skilled workers using other types of visas, such as (ironically) internatio­nal student or working holiday visas. In Canada, where provincial government­s play a significan­t role in immigratio­n, federal restrictio­ns on low-skilled visas have had unintended consequenc­es. Among them, a constant tension between the provinces that need low-skilled workers and the federal government, which has had to raise caps and accept less-skilled workers through various visa arrangemen­ts. An economy needs highly trained workers but also people willing to perform other activities. Just as internal migration adjusts the asymmetrie­s between states, internatio­nal migration adjusts difference­s between countries. Foreign workers lift the economy at all levels. Economist Benjamin Powell has estimated the net benefit of immigratio­n to the economy to amount to more than $36 billion. The job market has an ability to adjust itself that no government has. Between 2007 and 2009, undocument­ed entries were less than two-thirds of those between 2000 and 2005 because of the recession. In recent years, net immigratio­n from Mexico has been negative. Is it realistic to expect a points-based merit system to keep away all the low-skilled immigrants needed in the U.S.? Only a supereffic­ient police state could accomplish such a task — at a terrible cost to the country. Ultimately, the less the disconnect between the law and reality, the fewer undocument­ed immigrants there will be.

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