State GOP’s options: Oppose Trump, or be branded as ally
It was not even 90 days ago when I wrote in this space about the challenge that California Republicans in Congress would face as they tried to balance between loyalty to President Trump and to the wishes of their constituents. The issue they were facing back in February was whether to support Trump’s proposed immigration crackdown, even though many of them served districts that opposed the president’s hard-line approach.
How utterly quaint that dilemma seems now.
Here we sit, almost three months later, and the overall dynamic is similar: obligation to constituents versus partisan fidelity. But the stakes have now escalated to a historically unprecedented level, and rather than debating the finer points of wall-building and sanctuary cities, the newer and greater challenge for GOP politicians is what to say about a president who is under investigation for potential obstruction of justice.
At this point, that challenge is more political than constitutional. Under less highly charged circumstances, it is entirely appropriate to allow an investigation to run its course and gradually establish the guilt or innocence of its subject. But if the most serious allegations against Trump turn out to be true, then this type of measured and cautious approach will offer little protection for a Republican incumbent in the face of a brutal Democratic onslaught during next year’s campaign. “Innocent until proven guilty” is the law of the land, but it won’t stand a chance with most voters against an attack that links an embattled congressman to an even more embattled president.
Until last week, most Republican officeholders had reconciled themselves to the idea that Trump’s lack of discipline would be an ongoing distraction to their policy and political goals, but that they could separate his commotion from their more substantive agendas. But that was before it was reported that the president had shared classified national security information with Russian diplomats, that he may have committed an obstruction of justice by asking the FBI director to abandon an ongoing investigation, and that his own Justice Department had appointed an independent counsel to head an inquiry into possible ties between Trump’s presidential campaign and the Russian government’s efforts to influence the election’s outcome. In the space of 72 hours, the concept of compartmentalization suddenly became much more difficult.
Now a GOP congressman who attempts to avoid the burgeoning scandals by attempting instead to concentrate on ongoing legislative debates on health care, taxes or infrastructure appears to be shirking his or her responsibility to get to the bottom of a potential constitutional crisis. These types of controversies understandably overwhelm Washington when they hit, and so it becomes much more difficult to move forward on policy matters. An already hyper-partisan political climate becomes even more toxic: Democrats will be even less willing to risk working across party lines and Republicans will be even more reluctant to expend their shrinking political capital on behalf of a White House they no longer trust.
All of which makes life even more difficult for a GOP incumbent: Not only do you have to decide whether to abandon a president of your own party, but it will become almost impossible to discuss the issues that motivated you to go to Washington in the first place. Every midterm election is somewhat of a referendum on the sitting president. But barring the very unlikely possibility that these investigations have concluded by next year, Trump will be the overriding issue in every House and Senate race. Not only will Republican candidates be forced to either defend or disown Trump, he will drown out their efforts to talk about anything else.
Nowhere will this challenge be greater than in deep-blue California, where seven of the 14 Republican members of Congress represent districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton carried last fall. Three of them had already called for an independent counsel before former FBI Director Robert Mueller was announced Wednesday, and the pressure on all of them to separate from Trump will be unyielding.
In addition to the demands of a contested re-election campaign, there are other obligations for Republicans to weigh. The GOP leaders of both congressional oversight committees have accelerated their efforts in recent days, and the reluctance of even those Republicans in safe seats to defend the Trump administration is noticeable.
But the burden is greatest on those GOP candidates facing difficult reelection campaigns. They face the difficult choice to either condemn the president in the strongest possible terms, or be painted as his most loyal ally. There is no middle ground.
Dan Schnur, who has worked on four presidential and three gubernatorial campaigns, teaches political communications at the University of Southern California and UC Berkeley. To comment, submit your letter to the editor at http://bit.ly/SFChronicleletters.