S.F. could become seller soon
Nobody who was inside the visiting clubhouse in Philadelphia on July 31, 2013, could forget the tension.
The Giants were 46-59, stuck in the National League West cellar, 11 games out of first place. Their wild-card standing was even worse. The trade deadline approached just as the Giants were readying for batting practice and everyone was on pins and needles waiting to see if the Giants would move Hunter Pence, Javier Lopez or both.
When 4 p.m. passed with no deal, there was a collective exhalation, particularly from Pence, who really did not want to go.
The Giants begin a threegame series at the same ballpark Friday night in no less dire straits. They are 22-33. Their shot at the postseason resides between minuscule and “forget it” after their noncompetitive sweep at the hands of the Nationals, because the teams ahead of them in the National League West are soaring.
No matter which of the three wins the division, the Dodgers, Rockies and Diamondbacks could consume three of the five playoff spots, including both wild cards.
Although the trade deadline is two months away, the Giants need to decide soon which way they want to go.
To guide their decisionmaking, the Giants are beginning to look at some of their prospects to see what they have. It began with Christian Arroyo’s call-up in April and is expected to continue Friday when 24-year-old outfielder Austin Slater is promoted from Triple-A Sacramento to share left field with 25-year-old Orlando Calixte, who was brought up Tuesday.
If so, the Giants could return Eduardo Nuñez to third base, which would leave Arroyo as the odd man out for now. Arroyo’s return to Triple-A to work on his hitting could be in the offing.
The Giants’ biggest trade chip, assuming they do not want to part with the likes of Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Joe Panik and other controllable mainstays, is Johnny Cueto, who presents a dilemma for the Giants or any team that acquires him.
Cueto almost certainly will opt out of his contract after the season and become a free agent. In that sense, he must be treated as a rental in the trade market, and teams are reluctant to deal big prospects for rentals. On the other hand, if he gets hurt, Cueto may decide not to opt out and his new team would have him for four more years.
How do the Giants market him?
Assuming Cueto is viewed as a rental, the level of prospects could rise the sooner a deal is done because the new team would have Cueto for more starts. Two teams with good farm systems, the Yankees and Cubs, are expected to dive into the trade market.
But the Giants could get a better haul by waiting until the deadline and starting a bidding war. With more teams in the hunt because of that second wild card, chances rise that one team will accept the Giants’ demands.
Knowing the potential market involves fact-finding that began long ago.
Matt Moore would be attractive to a contender for the same reason the Giants wanted him. He is an impact pitcher with a relatively cheap contract. Nuñez probably would be on the block as a pending free agent. So might Pence if he returns from his injury and tears it up.
Mark Melancon might attract interest, but he is a tough sell with three years left on his contract unless the Giants consume a lot of the money. The more money the selling team eats, the better the prospects they get in return.
All of this assumes the Giants decide to sell, which is not a given.
For starters, the Giants cannot say they are going to “blow it up” for a major rebuild because of the millions of seats they have sold at AT&T Park for this year and the millions more they hope to sell.
Also, as in 2013, they still have the nucleus of a contender.
The Giants held on to Pence and Lopez because they wanted both to re-sign for a 2014 playoff run. That is exactly what happened, and 15 months after that tense afternoon the Giants celebrated their third championship in five years.
Assuming nobody else gets hurt, and Pence has no setbacks, he could rejoin the Giants as early as Monday in Milwaukee, finally giving manager Bruce Bochy a full lineup with Pence, Span and Slater/Calixte in the outfield; Belt, Panik, Nuñez and Crawford on the infield; Buster Posey behind the plate; and the promise of Madison Bumgarner’s return down the road to join a rotation that has other good arms.
The Giants during their championship era have been better than the sum of their parts. They rise above their individual stats when they play winning baseball.
This year’s team has crashed for want of depth. But the organization owes it to Bochy, the players and the fans who have spent big on tickets to try to win with this crew.
The Giants definitely need to get younger. Trading away bigger contracts for prospects is a way to gain financial flexibility while acquiring talent for the future. No-trade clauses complicate the matter.
But the Giants can continue to look from within and see what they have in Tyler Beede, Chris Shaw and others before deciding if prospects they acquired in trades would be any better.
The Giants have to do right by their prospects and promote them only when team evaluators believe they are ready. Arroyo is a cautionary tale. Pacific Coast League batting averages do not always translate.
The amateur draft begins June 12, after which teams turn their full attention toward the trade deadline. Clearly, the next few weeks are important in the lives of the men who will walk into the visiting clubhouse at Citizens Bank Park on Friday afternoon.