May gambles and loses big
Two months ago, British Prime Minister Theresa May called for a snap election. It should have been a slam dunk for May, whose Conservative Party was 20 points ahead in the opinion polls, and who needed a stronger hand to push through the difficult realities of “Brexit,” the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union, which passed by a razor-thin voter margin last year.
But there’s no such thing as an easy political victory in these chaotic times.
In a dramatic turn of events, May’s written-off rival, the Labor Party, had its greatest surge in vote share since the end of World War II. Labor’s leader, Jeremy Corbyn, widely dismissed by the majority of British political experts, ran a smart, effective campaign, turning out younger and poorer voters to win 40 percent of the total votes.
Meanwhile, May’s Conservative Party actually lost seats. Now its parliamentary majority — and her leadership — are at risk, just a few days before the United Kingdom sits down for its Brexit negotiations with the European Council.
The next several weeks will be chaotic. May has indicated that she will form a minority coalition government with the backing of a right-wing party from Northern Ireland, which will enable her to remain as prime minister. But her leadership has been hobbled, and her negotiating power is now much weaker.
It’s hard to see how she can successfully persuade the British public to swallow the difficult changes necessary for a hard exit from the European Union, for example. The majority of analysts say a hard exit will cost Britain dearly, both in terms of its trade balance and its role on the world stage.
Pursuing hardline social and economic policies may backfire for May at home, too.
British voters just sent a strong signal that they are increasingly weary of xenophobic rhetoric and public policies based on the principle of economic austerity. They will be even more furious when the Brexit-related economic contractions begin.
It’s hard to draw an exact comparison for the American political class, but one lesson seems to be especially germane: When the voters are hungry for change, the candidate with the strongest message can shift their direction quickly.