Republicans in state gear up for costly fight to keep seats
Democrats are convinced that deep-blue California’s growing distaste for President Trump will be enough to flip nine of the state’s 14 Republican-held congressional seats in 2018, but the most recent federal campaign finance reports show the GOP incumbents won’t be going without an expensive fight.
Six of those targeted Republicans took in at least $750,000 in the first six months of the year, out-raising their individual Democratic challengers.
“Our incumbents all had strong fundraising,” said Jack Pandol, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “They’re seeing a real level of support in their districts.”
That’s not discouraging Democratic leaders, who have plenty of potential challengers raising money and who recently added two more
veteran GOP congressmen, Devin Nunes, RTulare, and Duncan Hunter, R-Alpine (San Diego County), to their wish list of Republican targets.
“We believe these districts are winnable for a number of reasons,” said Andrew Godinich, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “A lot of these Republicans haven’t been challenged in a real way since they were first elected.”
That would include Rep. Ed Royce, an Orange County Republican who has served in Congress since 1992 and was re-elected last year with 57 percent of the vote. He has raised $959,000 since January and has $3.1 million in the bank for his 2018 campaign.
But the money hasn’t scared away would-be challengers. Mai-Khanh Tran, a pediatrician, has collected $273,000 for the race and fellow Democrat Phil Janowicz, a former college professor, brought in $180,000.
Businessman Andy Thorburn, 73, is the biggest surprise in the race. Just this week he announced that he was going to challenge Royce and loaned $2 million of his own money to the effort.
“The district is changing, and it’s the right time for Andy,” said Maclen Zilber, a consultant for the campaign.
It’s a similar situation for Rep. Mimi Walters, R-Irvine, who won reelection in a 58 percent landslide in 2018 and has raised nearly $1.1 million this year.
Despite having a district with a 40 percent to 30 percent GOP registration edge, Walters, who was first elected in 2014, is facing four Democratic challengers, including three who already have raised at least $200,000.
There are plenty of other Democrats looking to move to Washington, D.C.
There are four Democrats raising money for a race against Hunter and at least three looking to challenge Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Costa Mesa (Orange County). For Rep. Jeff Denham of Turlock (Stanislaus County), who won a 52 percent-48 percent battle in November and has more than $1 million in his campaign account, it’s now seven Democratic hopefuls and counting.
The flood of Democratic challengers could be too much of a good thing, especially if they spend more time battling one another than fighting the GOP incumbents for a spot on the November ballot.
“Crowded, divisive and expensive Democratic primaries are something we’re seeing all over the country,” said Pandol, the GOP spokesman. “It’s not going to be pretty.”
But hard-fought primaries aren’t necessarily a bad thing, since whoever wins will be battletested, said Godinich of the DCCC.
“We want the best of the best for candidates, and in a contested primary the cream rises to the top,” he said. “If we want energy and organizing, it’s helpful to have a lot of people in.”
Partisan spin aside, there are a few California congressional races virtually guaranteed to be competitive.
In the Sacramento suburbs, Democratic Rep. Ami Bera of Elk Grove will face another tough race in his conservative-leaning district. Republican businessman Andrew Grant, a former Marine captain who also worked on national security issues with the State Department and Homeland Security, announced last month he will challenge Bera.
Bera, a physician, edged out Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones in 2016, 51 percent to 49 percent. He has raised $629,000 this year and has $617,000 in the bank. Because Grant entered the race so recently, he has not yet filed any financial statements. Bera is one of four Democrats on the GOP’s own target list, joining Salud Carbajal of Santa Barbara, Scott Peters of San Diego and Raul Ruiz of Palm Desert (Riverside County).
Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista (San Diego County), could be the state’s most vulnerable Republican. A nine-term veteran of Congress, Issa barely hung on to his seat last year, beating Democrat Doug Applegate by only about 1,600 votes.
Issa has taken in $813,000 in campaign cash since January and has $671,000 on hand. Applegate, a retired Marine colonel, has raised $384,000 this year and has $262,000 in the bank for a potential rematch. But Democratic activist Mike Levin collected $615,000 in the first six months of the year and has $416,000 for his campaign.
Rep. Steve Knight, R-Lancaster (Los Angeles County) also is drawing serious challengers. In a district almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, Knight won an easierthan-expected victory in 2016, but is facing at least two Democratic challengers.
Knight, a former police officer and state legislator, has $435,000 in contributions this year and $433,000 in the bank. Democrat Katie Hill, an executive with an antihomelessness nonprofit, collected $221,000 and has $173,000 cash on hand. Jess Phoenix, a geologist who runs an educational science nonprofit, brought in $76,000 this year and has $51,000 in campaign cash.
Since the filing deadline for Congress isn’t until March 9, 2018, there’s likely to be plenty of changes between now and then, with new candidates opting in and others dropping out.
“You are going to see candidates on both sides jump in, and we’re still recruiting,” said Pandol, the GOP spokesman.