Power shortage
Can S.F. compete in era of record number of HRs?
For a sport that usually evolves at a snail’s pace, baseball has undergone a radical shift almost overnight. A sudden, unexpected and significant rise in home runs has jolted the game, as the local nine has discovered to its dismay.
Major-leaguers are on pace to hit more than 6,000 homers in a season for the first time and shatter the record of 5,693 set in 2000 during the steroid era. The Giants have hit just 92, which ranks last in the majors by a wide margin.
Just five years ago, the 2012 Giants took their division by eight games, won six postseason elimination games and swept the Detroit Tigers in the World Series with a team that hit a majors-worst 103 home runs. It is hard to imagine a team doing that in 2017.
Though the Giants have had other issues, their power shortage is a major reason for a decline that has left them with the third-worst record in baseball at 46-70.
The biggest stars this season are rookies Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Cody Bellinger of the Dodgers, who have 35 and 33 homers, respectively — raw power personified. Few fans could recite their batting averages, but who cares?
The 2017 Giants understand they have been left out of a revolution they need to join.
“With so much of an increase in power in the game, we want to be sure we have some part in that,” general manager Bobby Evans said. “There is concern about not having more power in our lineup to help strengthen us.”
The question is how to get it.
The ballpark factor
For starters, the Giants have no plans to shorten the dimensions at AT&T Park, which statistically is the most difficult stadium in which to hit home runs. Cold weather, wind and a right-center-field fence that reaches 421 feet deep and 24 feet high have contributed to the ballpark’s status as a home run killer.
Though Evans will not divulge his trade and free-agent strategies for the coming offseason, he offered a hint that he could look in that direction, noting that a rise in the number of hitters who successfully aim for the fences should provide “more options to pursue.”
But with all the money the Giants have invested in a lineup that was not built to outslug its competition, nobody should expect the Giants to pay or trade their way into the home run frenzy.
They will have to improve through a combination of personnel moves, more power from the minors and a change in approach among current players, which is happening to some degree.
Batting coach Hensley Meulens is indoctrinating Giants hitters into the world of launch angles and working with some to get more balls in the air, a trend in batting cages throughout baseball. Meulens also preaches the benefit of getting the bat head to meet the ball in front of the plate, which leads to more power on the pull side.
Still, Meulens is not looking to create a team of hitters shooting for the fences because that does not fit the personnel or AT&T Park. The Giants were constructed to hit line drives and use the big gaps at the ballpark, and it worked for three World Series-title teams.
“We don’t have big home run hitters,” Meulens said. “If we did have that, I think we would have a different approach.”
A spray chart of homers at AT&T Park shows that righthanded hitters have the best shot, by going to left field. Fewer homers go to right field. Center and right-center are a home run dead zone.
Part of the Giants’ problem in 2017 is a left-heavy lineup. They could add homers by reshaping the team over the winter to be more right-handed.
Opposite-field homers are rare at AT&T, particularly to right, and the Giants have a lot of hitters with an opposite-field approach. That has frustrated manager Bruce Bochy at times because he believes some of his hitters are strong enough to pull the ball for power if they get the bat head out front.
“That means for certain guys, it’s adjusting their swing or changing their swing,” Meulens said.
Launch angles
It also means educating players about modern statistical tools.
Meulens is well-versed in data that shows the optimal launch angle for hits is 5 to 25 percent. He has a color-coded chart that shows the hit probability for each launch angle in every direction of AT&T Park.
Meulens recently affixed two yellow ropes on either wall of the batting cage at AT&T. One rises at 5 percent from belt level, the other at 25 percent. The widening gap between them allows the hitter to visualize the launch angle hitters need to shoot for.
Long before he did that, Meulens began working with some hitters to elevate the ball, and not necessarily to generate more home runs.
He began with Denard Span in spring training to prevent a repeat of 2016, when he played a lot of pepper with the second baseman.
Span has seen results. His ratio of groundballs to flyballs has plunged from 1.13-to-1 last year to 0.74-to-1 this year. His batting average is the same, but he is slugging 39 points higher.
Buster Posey also has adapted his swing to elevate more balls. His groundball-to-flyball ratio has fallen from 0.97-to-1 to 0.74-to-1. Meulens believes that is directly responsible for Posey’s soaring numbers in 2017. He has just 12 homers, but part of that is how he is attacked. Pitchers go after him away, away, away to neutralize his pull-side power.
Meulens is looking for hitters to drive the ball more, which can translate into home runs, particularly on the road.
The draft
Still, the Giants do not have raw power hitters like Judge and Bellinger in the majors or minors. That has not been a draft priority as with other teams that play in bandbox parks. The Giants have used some high picks recently on outfielders with pop, most notably Chris Shaw, who has 20 combined homers at Double-A and Triple-A this season.
At the same time, the Giants do not want to overreact to the home run revolution.
“It hasn’t changed our philosophy,” Evans said.
Which is not to say management is happy with having the weakest power in the majors. The Giants have been outhomered 123-92 and outscored on homers 193-128, a difference that accounts for the lion’s share of their minus-103 overall run margin.
“We’ve seen how it can change a game quickly against us and we’ve seen how quickly it can change a game for us,” Evans said.
“It’s not lost on us. We’re not measured about our love for home runs. Ultimately, we want the complete player wherever we can in terms of their ability to do all parts of the game well. We obviously have a desire for power and concern for power. It’s not the only part of the game we’re focused on.
“We ultimately want to play winning baseball.”