Analysis: Trump President narrow success has path with a to his plan to work with Democrats to protect from “Dreamers” deportation.
Republican state Sen. Andy Vidak of Hanford (Kings County), whose rural Central Valley district is 73 percent Latino, thinks President Trump’s proposed deal with Democrats to protect undocumented immigrants who arrived in the United States as children could be an “only Nixon can go to China moment” — a moment that could revive a presidency. But there’s a big “if ” attached. Trump’s proposed agreement with congressional Democratic leaders puts the president — elected on a vow to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border — in the narrowest of political channels.
He’ll have to navigate between the hard-line conservatives who chanted “Build the wall!” at his rallies and the more moderate Republican officeholders facing reelection. Many of those moderates support some form of legal status for the 690,000 people covered by the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.
So far, the evidence that he can keep on course is thin.
Hours after news of the agreement was reported, Trump was trying to appease both sides, but only added to the confusion.
The president tried to reassure his conservative base Thursday in an email that read:
“...WE WILL BUILD A WALL (NOT A FENCE) ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA TO HELP STOP ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND KEEP AMERICA SAFE.
“Apparently, liberals in Congress and the mainstream media need one more reminder that building the wall is nonnegotiable,” Trump wrote.
A few hours before sending that email, Trump had taken a somewhat softer tone when he tweeted what sounded like a Democratic talking point: “Does anybody really want to throw out good, educated and accomplished young people who have jobs, some serving in the military?”
Then later, while preparing to visit Hurricane Irma victims in Florida, he seemed to split the difference:
“We’re not looking at citizenship,” he said while wearing a white cap with “USA” printed across the front. “We’re not looking at amnesty. We’re looking at allowing people to stay here.”
However, “allowing people to stay here” translates to “amnesty” for many in Trump’s base. Breitbart News, led by Trump’s former senior adviser, Steve Bannon, labeled him “Amnesty Don.” In the nomenclature of the right, anything that provides legal status to people who came to the U.S. without the proper documentation is “amnesty.”
“Trump’s base supporters definitely are upset at what they see happening,” said Jessica Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates for more restrictive immigration policies. “They did not expect the president to give in on this issue so casually, if in fact that’s what happened.”
Trump whipsawed even more when he told reporters traveling with him to Florida that he’s ready to cut more deals with Democrats.
“If the Republicans don’t stick together, then I’m going to have to do more and more,” Trump said.
That made it seem like “he’s trying to have it both ways” with both his conservative base and more moderate Republicans, said University of San Francisco Law School Dean John Trasviña, who was general counsel for a Senate Judiciary subcommittee in the 1990s.
Building the wall “is one issue that drove those hopes. And he is potentially pulling the rug out from his base,” said Trasviña, a former president of the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund. “I don’t know what one issue would make them more angry. At this point, he has pulled away from his base.”
Watching anxiously to see how Trump’s tightrope walk plays out are Republican House members facing tough reelection battles.
At stake is control of the GOP-led House after the 2018 midterm elections — Democrats need to win 24 Republican seats to take back the chamber. If Trump’s so-far-unshakable base believes he has broken his campaign promises on immigration by helping the participants in the DACA program, they may take out their anger on their nearest incumbent GOP congressman, in next year’s primaries.
“Republican congressional candidates should be concerned about apathy among Trump loyalists,” said Nathan Gonzales, publisher of the nonpartisan Inside Elections website.
In particular danger are Republican incumbents representing districts that have large numbers of Latino and Asian American voters, including several in California.
“They’re in a tough spot because they’re trying to reflect their constituency while navigating the complexity of President Donald Trump’s administration,” Gonzales said. “These members of Congress wake up and turn on Twitter and don’t know what they’re going to” see.
If a DACA deal is finalized — and that’s far from a sure bet — GOP House members could face similar difficult situations in what political strategist Simon Rosenberg calls “the Latin belt”: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Texas.
The latest Decision Desk HQ nonpartisan analysis predicts that Democrats will net 13 House seats next year, more than half come from states in the Latin Belt, Rosenberg said.
While Trump and others adjust their political positions, most voters remain steadfast in wanting to help the “Dreamers,” as beneficiaries of DACA protection are known.
A Morning Consult poll this week found that just 12 percent of voters “want legislation to deport dreamers. Most (54 percent) voters want to see legislation that allows a pathway for citizenship and 19 percent would prefer legislation that allows dreamers to be legal residents but not citizens.”
If the deal happens as it has been reported, Trasviña agreed that “this could be like Nixon going to China. But his attention span is so short, you never know. This moment could go away by Saturday morning’s first tweet.”