Isolated Iraqi Kurds facing major hurdles
IRBIL, Iraq — After a century of yearning, the Kurds of Iraq have managed, at last, to pull off a vote for independence last week, but not without antagonizing nearly everyone in perhaps the world’s most volatile region.
The question now is whether an arid, landlocked proto-state dependent on hostile neighbors can overcome is own shortcomings — and Iraq’s disruptive retaliation — to build a viable path to independence.
With its troubled economy and dearth of democratic institutions, its prospects were already tenuous. Its best hopes lay in its oil reserves and U.S. support, but Turkey has threatened to cut off its oil pipeline, and the relationship with the United States soured after the Kurds rebuffed its entreaties to cancel the vote.
Rather than negotiate and then seek international recognition, as the U.S. and others had asked, the Kurds forged ahead with the referendum. But if anything, the vote, while satisfying the Kurds emotionally, may have set back their national aspirations.
Now, after a 93 percent “yes” vote Monday, the Kurds are beseeching Baghdad to negotiate. Baghdad is not only refusing, but has demanded that the vote results be annulled and has moved to isolate the region, known as Kurdistan.
The last nation to win independence, landlocked South Sudan in 2011, has had a rocky start but at least was internationally recognized and had U.S. backing. Kurdistan is all alone in a dangerous neighborhood.
For the Kurds, the vote was a potent and historic touchstone, a declaration to the world that this is their moment and they are not turning back. But the Kurds may have underestimated the depth of international opposition.
Before they had even stopped celebrating, Iraq and its two powerful neighbors, Turkey and Iran, immediately went to work to negate the vote. Iraq fears losing a third of its country, as well as oil and natural gas reserves. Turkey and Iran fear that independence for Iraq’s Kurds would embolden separatist ambitions among their own Kurdish minorities.
The fierce reaction has exposed Kurdistan’s distinct vulnerabilities and shortcomings. The region’s first days after the vote were spent not laying the groundwork for statehood, but struggling to escape a tightening noose.
On Saturday, Iraq moved to take control of the international border crossing leading into the region from Turkey, officials said in Baghdad.
Iraq has forced the suspension of international flights to Kurdistan’s two international airports, and threatened to close land crossings linking Kurdistan and the rest of Iraq.
Iraq’s parliament has asked Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to bring charges against Kurdish leaders who participated in the referendum and to send troops into disputed areas claimed by both the Kurds and Baghdad.