John Shea: Looking at the Cy Young, MVP and Rookie of the Year contests, with predictions.
And then Giancarlo Stanton hit his 58th home run. And then his 59th.
This National League MVP race couldn’t have gotten any more convoluted, and then Stanton homered twice Thursday night and entered the weekend with 59 homers.
He has to be MVP if he reaches 60, doesn’t he? I’m not voting for this award (I’ve been assigned to another that’s also no slam dunk), but if I were, I could very easily put Stanton atop the 10-man ballot.
And that’s despite the long list of deserving candidates on teams heading to the playoffs.
There’s no rule stipulating a playoff-bound player is more valuable than a player who’ll go fishing the day after the regular season. It’s usually preferred in this process, at least for me, especially when an MVP candidate makes a significant difference down the stretch.
Stanton’s Marlins are buried behind first-place Washington in the NL East. Just as the Reds are buried in the NL Central behind the Cubs, hurting Joey Votto’s candidacy, which is a shame because Votto’s season has been incredible.
What if Stanton finishes at 59? Is it any less of a season than 60? Is one home run enough to sway the voting? This is baseball, and round numbers are cherished — especially with home runs — dating to when Babe Ruth homered 60 times in 1927 and Roger Maris reached 60 and then 61 in 1961.
Mark McGwire shot to 70 in 1998, and Barry Bonds matched it in 2001 before obliterating the record in the final weekend.
Some were hoping Stanton would match or surpass Maris’ mark, making him the “real” home run king, which is too ridiculous of a thought to waste time on.
There’s no simple choice for MVP. There’s no wrong choice. Once Bryce Harper hurt his left knee on Aug. 12, it became a wide-open race. It still is.
Colorado’s Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon, Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt, Washington’s Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman, the Cubs’ Kris Bryant, Los Angeles’ Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger and, from the non-playoff-bound teams, Stanton and Votto.
We’ve narrowed the field to three candidates in the non-Stanton division: Arenado, Blackmon and Goldschmidt.
Goldschmidt, the main force in the Diamondbacks’ race to the wild card, was MVP runner-up in 2013 and 2015 and is putting up better numbers this year. We’ll put Arenado a tick ahead of Goldschmidt, though the power numbers are similar, as are the slash lines. Goldschmidt is a fantastic defensive first baseman, but Arenado is an all-time third baseman and has more extra-base hits, a higher average with runners in scoring position and better September numbers.
But in the Year of the Home Run, we prefer a leadoff hitter. Entering play Sunday, Blackmon not only leads the league in runs, hits, total bases, triples and average but has 37 homers, 104 RBIs (most in history from the leadoff spot) and a slash line of .330/.399/.601.
I usually significantly weigh the Coors Field factor, but guess what? The Rockies finished 41-40 on the road and needed Blackmon — who plays center field, one of the most taxing positions at the ballpark that’s most taxing on defenders — to excel in home games so the Rockies could sneak into the playoffs. But this year, the Stanton argument is too compelling to ignore. Whether he hits 59 homers or 60, he deserves it.
AL MVP: It’s the most lopsided MVP race in history, and we’re not talking talent. We’re talking size. We’re picking Houston’s diminutive Jose Altuve, who’s roughly half the mass of his main competition, 6-foot-7, 282-pound Aaron Judge of the Yankees.
Judge struggled after enjoying an epic first half and winning Home Run Derby, but in September he’s topping .300 with 15 homers.
Altuve has been the rock of the Astros’ lineup. He leads the league in hits and average in addition to swatting 24 homers and stealing 32 bags. Judge has 52 homers, 114 RBIs and a whopping 208 strikeouts to 84 for Altuve. NL Cy Young Award: Arguments can be made for Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. Both made their final starts Saturday, with Kershaw’s ERA now at 2.31 and Scherzer’s at 2.51. Kershaw also has an edge in wins and strikeout-to-walk ratio, but Scherzer has a slight edge in WHIP and a huge lead in strikeouts.
The bottom line is Scherzer made four more starts because Kershaw missed six weeks with a back injury. From this corner, that goes a long way. Nod to Scherzer. AL Cy Young Award: As in the NL, it’s a two-way race in which one man (Chris Sale) will have four more starts than the other (Corey Kluber). But in this case, we favor Kluber, who’s not far behind Sale in innings and has an ERA more than a half-run better.
Kluber has five complete games, including three shutouts (Sale has one complete game), a better WHIP and a better strikeout-to-walk ratio despite Sale becoming the first AL pitcher with 300-plus strikeouts since 1999. Sale has slipped since Aug. 1, posting a 4.09 ERA and giving up 13 homers in 11 starts. Rookies of the Year: If Bellinger and Judge aren’t unanimous, someone’s not paying attention. The real question is who had the better year, and that’s a debate that would never end. They have combined for 91 homers, and each was perfect for his respective playoff team. Managers of the Year: In the NL, Colorado’s Bud Black (an ERA ranked eighth in the league? In Denver?) over Arizona’s Torey Lovullo and Washington’s Dusty Baker. In the AL, Minnesota’s Paul Molitor (playoff-bound a year after 100 losses) over Cleveland’s Terry Francona and Houston’s A.J. Hinch.