Don’t expect aces to come to Bay Area
The Dodgers had the best rotation ERA in the majors. Followed by the Indians. Then the Diamondbacks and Nationals. In fact, the eight teams competing in the four Division Series rank 1 through 8 in rotation ERA.
So, yeah, starting pitchers are kind of important, their crummy outings in the wildcard games notwithstanding.
The Giants were 15th in rotation ERA, the A’s 20th. Good reasons they never contended, though their problems went far beyond their rotation struggles.
Both had major concerns in the bullpen and on defense. Offensively, the Giants were last in home runs. The A’s were fourth, but that didn’t translate particularly well — in runs scored, they ranked 17th, so manufacturing rallies was the issue.
It all starts with the rotation, and the Giants and A’s need drastic improvement in that area, but they say they’ll rely mostly on the pitchers in house to turn it around in 2018.
The Giants believe their starters, mostly veterans, will return to their norm. The A’s believe their starters, mostly young, will continue to evolve.
It says here each team could use another experienced arm, if only because depth is so vital, and each team needs more. In the A’s case, a veteran presence in a young rotation was missing in 2017 and would be helpful moving forward.
“We have, I think, the makings of one of the best rotations in baseball still,” said Giants manager Bruce Bochy, noting the absences of Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto, who were on the disabled list a combined 120 games.
“We took a pretty big hit with our 1-2 guys. I look at both as No. 1 guys. I guess if you look at the silver lining, their workload was a lot lighter. Hopefully that will freshen them up. At the same time, these guys have a lot of pride. I expect them to come back with a vengeance.”
If there are rotation tweaks on either side of the bay, both teams hinted it won’t come at the top end, unless either team miraculously lands Shohei Otani.
“It was the one area that we were disappointed in the development,” said Billy Beane, the A’s executive VP of baseball operations. “But I agree there are guys there with ability, and it would probably behoove us to choose from that group of players as opposed to just going out with the risk of the free-agent market, given the cost and injuries.”
If Otani doesn’t fall in the Giants’ laps, and if they don’t come across a bona fide starter in a trade, they’ll stick with the same top four of Bumgarner, Cueto (unless he opts out of his contract), Jeff Samardzija and Matt Moore.
The hope is for Bumgarner and Cueto to regain health and return to 2016 form, Samardzija to eat innings again and be more consistent and Moore to flush 2017 and feed off that nice late-season mini-stretch. (That’s a lot of hoping.) Chris Stratton and Ty Blach are options for the final spot.
“I think that’s probably a safe assumption,” Giants general manager Bobby Evans said. “I don’t think I can clearly put anything in stone right now. It comes down to what every transaction does to impact it. One thing we can improve on is the defense behind them.”
As for the A’s, all five members of the projected seasonopening rotation spent time on the DL for a total of 237 games. Kendall Graveman, who started the opener because Sonny Gray was shelved, twice was on the DL.
The A’s say they’re open to adding a piece or two to the rotation. For now, Graveman and Sean Manaea are assured jobs, and management also likes Andrew Triggs, Paul Blackburn and Daniel Mengden, who were solid when not hurt, along with Raul Alcantara, who impressed as a spot starter in September.
Jharel Cotton struggled and would need to re-earn a spot. Fellow rookie Daniel Gossett struggled even more.
“I think we’ve seen enough out of a lot of these guys to think they’ll improve,” A’s GM David Forst said. “There is talent. These guys are young and inexperienced, so with age and experience, we think they can get better.”
Young rotations are nothing new for the A’s, though they’ve had a history of bringing in experienced starters who became valuable role models, including Rich Hill (2016), Scott Kazmir (2014, 2015), Bartolo Colon (2012, 2013), Brandon McCarthy (2011) and even the overpriced Ben Sheets (2010).
The need for an experienced starter is underscored by prospects A.J. Puk, the sixth overall pick in last year’s draft, and James Kaprielian, acquired in the Gray trade and recovering from Tommy John surgery. Puk, who reached Double-A this season, could debut with the A’s in 2018.
“You have to bring in the right guy in that situation,” Forst said. “Not just any veteran or experienced guy can come in and play that role, so we’ll certainly survey the market and be opportunistic.”
Forget about either team pursuing Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish, who headline the free-agent starters. The next tier includes Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jason Vargas, Jaime Garcia and Vallejo’s CC Sabathia. Like Cueto, the Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka can opt out of his contract.
If the Giants get another pitcher, a trade is likely. The A’s plan to scour the free-agent market for a possible deal, knowing someone seeking a bounce-back year could come on the cheap.
In any event, both like whom they have in house.
“The preferred route is to create the pitching staff organically,” Beane said. “That’s where we’ve had the most success.”
Bochy said of the Giants’ rotation, “I fully expect them to be back to who they are. They’re our strength, and I still believe that.”