Teams know the spread
The California Golden Bears trailed the Washington Huskies 38-7 as the final seconds ticked off the clock in Seattle on Oct. 7. With no chance of winning, a team typically attempts a touchdown pass or lets time run out. But Cal did a strange thing: The team called a time-out with one second remaining and set up for a field goal.
Why would Cal do this? One possible explanation is that the spread on the game was 28.5 points. A field goal would have cut the margin to 28 and made the Bears winners against the spread.
But athletes and coaches don’t think about point spreads, do they? Well, maybe they do. Universities and their football teams are often supported by generous backers and fans who may bet on the game. Sports betting is illegal in California, but many people wager online or with bookies.
“People in sports know the spread,” wrote Bloomberg columnist Aaron Brown in an Oct. 11 column. “Many of them bet despite rules against such activities, and nearly all know people who bet. A college coach who knows that most of his or her school’s boosters have bet on his or her team might have a hard time making a decision that is meaningless in game terms but costs them money.”
Sports leagues, professional and collegiate, don’t like the idea that gambling could play any role whatsoever in on-field decisions. But Brown argues that because gambling has become ubiquitous, this is inevitable and that the evidence backs it up.
“Sports are played by people, not angels, motivated by lots of things: the rules, team loyalty, personal benefit, friends’ benefits, opinions of others,” he wrote. “By averaging over thousands of games, you can demonstrate that point spreads affect outcomes.”
And a new type of gambling, daily fantasy sports, has developed during the past few years that’s fueled players’ desire to improve their individual performances. Athletes have long sought to pad their stats, such as yards rushing in a game. But now that they may have friends or family betting on their performance at daily fantasy sites such as DraftKings.com, players may be more motivated to gain those extra yards even in a blowout.
Pro sports leagues like fantasy wagering because it keeps fans tuned into games even when the outcome is clear. If, for example, the San Francisco 49ers are losing to the New York Giants, 35-3 in the third quarter, most fans will turn off the TV. But if you have a daily fantasy wager that includes Eli Manning’s passing yardage, you’ll probably keep watching.
Back to the Cal-Washington game: On the field-goal attempt, the snap sailed past the holder and Cal wasn’t able to cut the deficit. So if the Bears were trying to win one for the boosters, they failed, losing 38-7.