Cracks in support for tax bill
Backing is soft among some of state’s House Republicans
House leadership in Washington can’t count on the California delegation’s full support of the Republican tax bill now before Congress, as a half dozen California GOP members are either opposed to it, undecided or fearful to even express an opinion because they’re facing tough re-election fights.
Republicans plan to vote Thursday on the bill. Without getting any Democrats on their side, the maximum number of Republican votes they can lose is 22. So far, eight — including Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Vista (San Diego County) — have said they will oppose it. Three Californian Republicans — Rep. Tom McClintock of Elk Grove (Sacramento County), Rep. Steve Knight of Palmdale (Los Angeles County) and Rep. Dana Rohrabacher of Costa Mesa (Orange County) — told The Chronicle Monday that they remain undecided.
Two others — Rep. Mimi Walters, R-Irvine, and Rep. Ed Royce, R-Fullerton (Orange County) — did not respond to The Chronicle Monday, even though they have previously expressed some level of support for the tax plan. Those six plus Reps. Jeff Denham, RTurlock (Stanislaus County), and David Valadao, R-Hanford (Kings County), have been targeted by the national Demo-
cratic Party, which believes it may be able to flip their seats next year. Denham, Valadao and the other six members of the California GOP’s 14-person delegation support the tax measure.
It’s “highly unusual” that Republicans aren’t walking in conservative lockstep in advance of next year’s Congressional midterm election, said David McCuan, a professor of political science at Sonoma State University. Typically, the midterm electorate is “usually older, whiter and more affluent” — that is, more GOP-friendly.
“That mix (of voters) is not happening,” McCuan said. “Combine that with the fact that the president is not popular (in California), and some of these Republicans could lose their seats,” even without voting for a bill that increases taxes on their constituents.
McCuan said the GOP House members who are remaining silent or who oppose the tax plan have strong political reasons for bucking their colleagues. The plan eliminates state and local tax deductions on federal returns, a provision that is popular in the suburban California districts represented by GOP legislators.
In Walters’ suburban Orange County district, 37 percent of households claimed the deductions, worth an average of $18,200. Nearby, in Royce’s Orange County district, 33 percent of households claimed the tax break, which was worth an average of $15,575, according to figures compiled by Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee using 2015 federal tax data.
Andrew Feldman is a spokesman for Red to Blue California, a political action committee that launched digital ads and petition drives Monday against GOP House members in California.
“When is enough enough?” he asked of Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and now to change the tax code in a way many analysts say will benefit the wealthy more than the middle class. “The last thing their constituents want is for them to vote in favor of a tax plan that gives the largest tax breaks to billionaires and corporations and penalizes education, hardworking students and families with children.”
After last week’s Democratic victories in Virginia, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced it was adding McClintock to its target list, even though President Trump won his district by 16 points and Republicans enjoy a 15-point voter-registration advantage there.
The DCCC began running online ads against vulnerable GOP House members in California Monday that said, “Tax alert! The Republican tax plan RAISES taxes on California’s middle class to lower taxes on corporations.”
McClintock remained undecided on the tax vote because he is concerned with a recent report from the nonpartisan Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation that said many middle-class taxpayers would pay more over time. Instead, he has said he would like to see uniform, across-the-board rate reduction for all tax brackets.
“He’s still looking at it,” McClintock spokeswoman Jennifer Cressy said Monday.
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, insisted Monday, “This bill is a tax cut.”
“From the moment the House began working on this bill, each member of the California Republican delegation has actively engaged to make it as strong as possible for Californians,” McCarthy said in a statement to The Chronicle, pointing out, for example, that the plan repeals the Alternative Minimum Tax which, he said, “has a disproportionate effect on taxpayers in our state.” The state and local deduction also has a disproportionate effect, as California has the highest state income tax rate in the county.
Knight remains undecided because he is concerned that a tax credit for adoption was not included in the GOP plan, writing that “eliminating it is not who we are as Republicans” in a letter to Ways and Means Committee chair Rep. Kevin Brady, R-Texas.
“There’s a number of different provisions we’re taking a look at,” Knight spokesman Christopher Jusuf said Monday. “Rep. Knight has yet to make a decision on the tax reform package.”
Two Central Valley Republicans on the Democrats’ target list are supporting the tax plan, however.
Valadao said he is backing the proposal because his constituents are still struggling, even though the national economy is picking up. Unemployment levels in his district are nearly double the national average, and 27 percent of his constituents live below the poverty line.
“This tax plan will create more jobs, increase the amount of money workers take home and strengthen our economy,” Valadao said Monday.
Denham “supports the tax proposal and is taking into account constituent opinions and concerns,” his spokeswoman, Jessica McFaul, said Monday. “He believes in a simpler, fairer tax code.”
Some of those constituents are planning to protest Denham’s position Tuesday outside his Modesto office. It’s another sign of the high amount of progressive energy — even in the usually quiet Central Valley — that is making next year’s elections surprisingly tough on Republicans.