Breed is acting mayor — but what comes next?
Even before the sun rose Tuesday, the city’s political establishment began coalescing around London Breed as acting mayor — but just how long the Board of Supervisors president will hold the office in the wake of Mayor Ed Lee’s untimely passing is a bigger question, and one that likely won’t be addressed for at least another month.
“This is not a time for political intrigue,” said Supervisor Aaron Peskin. “This is the time to send a message to the people of the city and county of San Francisco that we can and will govern.”
By virtue of her position leading the board, Breed automatically became acting mayor when Lee was
pronounced dead in the middle of the night, while holding onto her presidency at the same time.
The other supervisors made it clear Tuesday that they would rally around Breed in the days ahead to assure that city operations run smoothly. So don’t expect any public movement on picking a successor until the supervisors return from their holiday break Jan. 9.
Even then, Breed may stay on as acting mayor because of the complicated nature of the succession process — and the timing of the upcoming elections.
Breed, who had been considering a run for mayor in 2019 — when Lee would have termed out — could continue in her unprecedented dual role until June 5. That’s when the city will hold an election to fill the remaining year and a half of Lee’s term. In this scenario, no board action is required.
Another option would be for supervisors to select one of the other possible mayoral candidates already holding public office as interim mayor until June. This field includes City Attorney Dennis Herrera, supervisors Jane Kim or Mark Farrell, AssessorRecorder Carmen Chu or state Assemblyman David Chiu.
The catch is that by taking the interim job they would have to give up their current post — and make an all-or-nothing run for mayor in June. Heading to the ballot as the incumbent might provide an appealing incentive for the gamble.
Former State Sen. Mark Leno, who has raised $400,000 for a 2019 run, could be a candidate for interim mayor. Privately, though, supervisors say neither he nor any other potential candidate has the six votes needed to secure the appointment.
It will be especially tough for any of the sitting board members to round up support, since they are precluded from voting for themselves.
Another potential path forward for the board would be to pick a department head or someone from outside City Hall, but no outside candidate has emerged.
Ideological politics may not be such a big factor this time. Unlike when Lee was appointed to fill out Mayor Gavin Newsom’s term in 2011, the tug-of-war between the board’s progressive and moderate factions appears to have quieted down — with neither side having a clear majority.
Supervisor Malia Cohen predicted that Breed would have the votes to be interim mayor if she wanted the job.
“She certainly has grown in the job as board president,” Cohen said.
Other supervisors, speaking on the condition of anonymity, were not so sure.
If Breed does keep the mayoral seat until June — whether she remains acting mayor or is appointed interim mayor — she would almost certainly be in the driver’s seat to win full-term election in 2019.
But it could be a bumpy ride. As wellliked as Mayor Lee was on a personal level, his handling of crime, gentrification and the city’s growing homeless problem had his job approval polling in the 30 percent range.
“So she will have to be more than an acting or interim mayor,” said one supervisor. “She will have to be an effective acting mayor as well.”
Breed will have to navigate a number of tricky issues that the mayor was facing in the months ahead, including a planned 5 percent cut in the city budget over the next two years and upcoming labor negotiations with the police and fire unions.
“It’s high risks, high rewards for Breed,” said one veteran City Hall insider watching the moves.
And for the City Hall establishment as well, which quickly gathered around Breed in the early morning hours after Lee’s passing with the message of continuity front and center.
Old City Hall hands dating to the eras of mayors Willie Brown and Newsom — including former press secretary P.J. Johnston, former Chief of Staff Steve Kawa and mayoral adviser Tony Winnicker — were back under the dome Tuesday to lend a hand.
U.S. Senator and former District Attorney Kamala Harris, a longtime supporter of Breed, phoned in to the acting mayor with words of encouragement. Former Mayor Brown chimed in from the sidelines, urging Breed to get her own legal counsel to make sure all of the rules regarding the succession process are followed in coming days.
Lt. Gov. Newsom, who along with Brown spearheaded Lee’s selection as interim mayor in 2011, also made an appearance at a meeting of city department heads that Breed presided over Tuesday morning.
It was Brown, now a Chronicle columnist, who helped get Breed on both the city’s redevelopment and fire commissions. The two fell out briefly, however, when Brown advised her against taking on Lee’s handpicked candidate Christina Olague for supervisor in District Five in 2012.
Breed didn’t take the advice and won, showing a feisty and independent streak in the process. As she told the Fog City website before her election, “They don’t f— control me.”
That was then, but on Tuesday a calmer and more experienced Breed faced the microphones.
“I now must assume the responsibility, and I ask for your patience, and I ask for your support, and I ask for your prayers,” she said.